Polls

Obama’s numbers look poor

| Tom Jensen

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President_Graph Raleigh, N.C. – For the first time since last July Barack Obama does not lead Mitt Romney in PPP’s monthly national poll on the 2012 Presidential race.  Romney has now pulled into a tie with the President at 45%.

Obama’s approval rating this month is 46% with 48% of voters disapproving of him.  There are 2 things particularly troubling in his numbers: independents split against him by a 44/49 margin, and 16% of Democrats are unhappy with the job he’s doing while only 10% of Republicans give him good marks.

Romney takes advantage of those 2 points of weakness for Obama.  He leads the President by 9 points with independents at 46-37.  And he earns more crossover support, getting 13% of the Democratic vote while only 8% of Republicans are behind Obama.

An extremely wide electability gap has developed between Romney and all the rest of the Republican candidates. Everyone else we tested trails Obama by at least as much as John McCain’s 2008 margin of defeat and in most cases more.  Obama’s up 7 on Michele Bachmann at 48-41, 9 against Tim Pawlenty at 48-39, 12 versus Herman Cain at 48-36, and as usual has his largest lead in a match up with Sarah Palin at 53-37.

Here’s an important note on all of this early 2012 polling: Obama’s numbers are worse than they appear to be on the surface.  The vast majority of the undecideds in all of these match ups disapprove of the job Obama’s doing but aren’t committing to a candidate yet while they wait to see how the Republican field shakes out.  For instance if you allocate the undecides based on their approval/disapprove of Obama, Romney would lead 52-48.

“There’s a very good chance Barack Obama would lose if he had to stand for reelection today,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This is his worst poll standing in a long time and he really needs the economy to start turning around.”

PPP surveyed 928 registered voters from July 15th to 17th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q2 In the current negotiations between President
Obama and Congressional Republicans about
the debt ceiling, which side do you have more
faith in?
President Obama…………………………………….. 47%
Congressional Republicans ………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%

Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%

Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q13 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%

Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 36%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%

Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%

Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%

Q17 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

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