Raleigh, N.C. — PPP’s
first post-conventions poll in Ohio finds Barack Obama with a 5 point lead over
Mitt Romney, 50-45. This is the largest lead PPP has found for Obama in an Ohio
poll since early May. Last month Obama led 48-45.
Both candidates have seen their images improve with Ohio voters in the wake
of the conventions. Obama now breaks even in his approval rating at 48%, after
being under water with 46% of voters approving and 51% disapproving of him a
month ago. Romney’s numbers are up from a 41/52 favorability rating a month ago
as well, but he still remains unpopular. Only 44% see him favorably to 49% with
a negative opinion.
Romney actually leads 46-44 with independents but Obama has the overall
advantage thanks to a more unified party base. He leads 86/11 with Democrats,
compared to Romney’s 83/13 advantage with Republicans. Obama’s 75 point lead
within his own party is up from 70 points a month ago, suggesting that his
party has coalesced around him a little bit more in the wake of a successful
convention.
Obama’s leading in Ohio because he’s not as weak there with some large voter
blocs as he is in other states. He trails only 48-46 with men and 50-46 with
whites, and actually leads 49-47 with seniors. His performance with those
groups is far better than it is nationally- Romney would need much wider leads
with them if he was going to take Ohio.
Despite chatter that Obama’s convention speech was not up to his normal standards
Ohio voters still say by a 60-31 margin that Obama gives better speeches than
Romney. His position in the state may also be helped by the fact that the folks
who gave the major convention speeches Tuesday night are more popular than he
is: Bill Clinton has a 57/34 favorability rating and Michelle Obama’s is 57/35.
“It’s hard to see a path to victory for Mitt Romney without Ohio,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But Barack Obama’s led in our
polling there all year and now his advantage is getting larger.”
PPP surveyed 1,072 likely Ohio voters from September 7th
to 9th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.0%. This poll was not paid
for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q4 Did the Democratic convention make you more
or less likely to vote for Democrats this year, or
did it not make a difference?
More likely………….. .32%
Less likely ………….. .32%
Didn’t make a
difference …………….36%
Q5 Who do you think had a better convention: the
Democrats or the Republicans?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 47%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin O’Malley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 86%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Julian Castro?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michelle Obama?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ann Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q10 Do you have a higher opinion of Michelle
Obama or Ann Romney?
Michelle Obama………………………………………. 49%
Ann Romney …………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q14 Who do you think gives better speeches:
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 60%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q15 Who do you think deserves more credit for the
killing of Osama bin Laden: Barack Obama or
Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 63%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 6%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%
Q19 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 83%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
