Raleigh, N.C. – Americans are split, 47-47, on whether they would prefer to re-elect President Obama or vote for his unnamed Republican opponent were there an election today, but the president outperforms his generic re-elect figure against all of the Republicans tested head-to-head except Mike Huckabee—including unlikely candidate but national lightning rod Glenn Beck. Obama lags Huckabee, 44-47, after winning 47-44 last month, but the president tops Beck, 48-39; Sarah Palin, 49-43 (no change from last month); Newt Gingrich, 47-43 (Obama led 49-42 last time); and Mitt Romney, 46-43 (45-42 Obama lead last month).
The reason for the tie on the generic ballot is that 14% of Democrats would vote for the GOP candidate, with only 8% of Republicans casting a ballot for the president. Independents split 43-42 in favor of Obama. There is a similar pro-Republican partisan crossover in each of the horse races—Huckabee with 17% of Democrats to Obama’s 8% of Republicans; 15-9 for Gingrich; 14-9 for Beck; 12-7 for Romney; and only 14-11 for Palin. But the president has larger leads with independents when Americans know who the GOP opponent is. The president is down 38-43 against Huckabee, but over Beck, 48-29; Palin, 48-34; Gingrich, 46-37; and Romney, 41-38.
The only candidate to significantly improve on his standing from August is Huckabee, who was disliked 32-34, and now liked, 35-32. Beck is disliked, 31-41, but while Palin had been the least popular candidate in most previous months, she is now still by far the best known, but only second least liked, at 38-52, after Gingrich, who posts a 30-50 favorability. At 33-35, Romney is the second most popular after Huckabee.
“These numbers are further confirmation that even if 2010 is brutal for Democrats it doesn’t say much about Barack Obama’s future prospects,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The fact that he is ahead of or running virtually even with the leading Republicans at an extremely low point for his party bodes well for him if things ever start getting better.”
PPP surveyed 590 American voters from September 10th to 13th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 47%
Disapprove………… 49%
Not sure ……………. 3%
Q2 Generally speaking if there was a Presidential
election today would you vote for Barack
Obama or his Republican opponent?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Republican opponent ……………………………….. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………. 35%
Unfavorable ………… 32%
Not sure ……………… 34%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Glenn Beck?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q8 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama, who
would you vote for?
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Sarah Palin and Barack Obama, who would
you vote for?
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Newt Gingrich and Barack Obama, who would
you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Glenn Beck and Barack Obama, who would
you vote for?
Glenn Beck …………………………………………….. 39%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q12 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, who would
you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q13 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 42%
Conservative…………………………………………… 39%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q17 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 9%
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 18%
