As Barack Obama visits North Carolina today a new Public Policy Polling survey of the
state finds that he’s well positioned to repeat his surprise victory there from 2008, and
that the state is likely to play the most important role it has in the Presidential race in
decades. Key findings from the poll include:

-Obama’s approval numbers are on positive ground with 49% of voters approving of him to 47% who disapprove. 3 key things stand out. The first is his 35% standing with white voters, showing almost no decline from the 37% of the white vote he won in 2008. Obama is seeing much less slippage with white voters in North Carolina than he is nationally. The second is that he is on narrowly positive ground with independents at
47/46. That is a sharp departure from the poor numbers he had with that key voting bloc for most of the last two years. The third is that his approval rating with voters under 30 is a remarkable 76%, suggesting that voters new to the electorate in 2012 are likely to be strong Obama supporters.

-Obama leads head to head match ups with all of his top potential Republican opponents. A race with Mitt Romney would be a toss up, as Obama leads him 45-44. The President would start out with healthier advantages against the rest of the GOP field: 7 points over Tim Pawlenty at 47-40, 10 over Newt Gingrich at 50-40, 11 over Herman Cain at 48-37, and 14 over Sarah Palin at 52-38.

-The Republican candidate field is unpopular in North Carolina and beyond the
President’s decent approval numbers that’s the main thing fueling his early leads. All the GOP contenders we tested have under water favorability spreads: 35/44 for Romney, 20/28 for Cain, 23/37 for Pawlenty, 31/62 for Palin, and 23/58 for Gingrich.

-North Carolina is likely to be much more important to the Presidential race next year
than it was in 2008. Obama’s approval numbers in North Carolina are superior to what
we’re finding for him in your quintessential swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and
Florida. While North Carolina was one of the closest states in the country in 2008, it was really just the cherry on top for Obama in an electoral landslide. This time it could very well be part of the path to 270 electoral votes for the President.

North Carolina is never going to be a cakewalk for Obama, especially if Romney is the
nominee, but the state should be very competitive again in 2012. PPP surveyed 563
registered voters from June 8th to 11th with a margin of error of +/-4.1%.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%

Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 47%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%

Q15 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 71%
African-American …………………………………….. 23%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Q17
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 19%
704………………………………………………………… 19%
828………………………………………………………… 16%
910………………………………………………………… 16%
919………………………………………………………… 19%