Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama won’t have to worry too much about holding Michigan for the Democrats this fall- he leads Mitt Romney 53-39 there, a lead little changed from PPP’s last poll of the state in February when his advantage was 54-38.
Romney just doesn’t have much of a home field advantage in the state. Only 24% of voters consider him to be a Michigander to 65% who do not. And only 35% have a favorable opinion of him to 57% with a negative view.
It’s not just Romney’s unpopularity helping Obama in Michigan though. Obama’s own approval rating is at a record high in our polling of the state with 53% of voters giving him good marks to 41% who disapprove, including a 50/43 standing with independents.
Obama’s crushing Romney on what will doubtless be one of the biggest issues in the campaign in Michigan- 55% think that he’s been better for the automotive industry in the state to only 31% who say Romney wins out on that front.
Going inside the numbers Obama’s winning over 13% of Republican voters while losing just 7% of Democrats, and he also has a double digit advantage with independents at 48-36.
There’s been some talk about Rick Snyder as a potential running mate but he wouldn’t help the ticket any- with him as the VP pick Obama’s lead actually expands slightly to 53-38. That’s because Snyder continues to be an unpopular Governor with only 37% of voters approving of him to 52% who disapprove. That’s a regression for Snyder compared to February when he was at 40/47, largely because he’s seen a drop with independents.
“Barack Obama looks like a pretty safe bet to win Michigan this fall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters trust Obama more on the auto industry and don’t feel much of a personal connection to Romney despite his roots in the state.”
PPP surveyed 500 Michigan voters between May 24th and 27th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 53%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Snyder’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .37%
Disapprove…………. .52%
Not sure …………….. .12%
Q5 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Rick Snyder for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 53%
Romney-Snyder………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q6 Who do you think has been better for the
automotive industry in Michigan: Barack
Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 Do you consider Mitt Romney to be a
Michigander, or not?
He is a Michigander …………………………………. 24%
He is not…………………………………………………. 65%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 In Michigan, do you think the trees are the right
height, or not?
The trees are the right height…………………….. 38%
They are not……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%
Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 37%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 28%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 34%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
African-American …………………………………….. 14%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
