Raleigh, N.C. – Against every Republican but Sarah Palin, President Obama is underperforming in Wisconsin compared to 2008, when he beat Palin’s running mate John McCain in the state by 14 points. But the president has put some distance between himself and his potential opponents since PPP last looked at the contest in the Badger State in December. And even native son Paul Ryan cannot beat him.
Obama tops Ryan, who was not tested in the previous poll, 49-40. That is just a hair better than Mitt Romney’s 48-38 deficit, but a bit worse than Mike Huckabee’s 48-41. Huckabee trailed by a similar 47-41 last time, but Romney was the closest in December, lagging only 46-42. Newt Gingrich is now down 51-39, a little worse than his 50-41 showing two and a half months ago. The only candidate who now performs worse than McCain is Palin, who trails the president by 19 points, 54-35, a decline from her 52-38 deficit last time, which matched McCain’s loss margin. The poll’s respondents reflect an electorate that voted for Obama over McCain by only nine points.
Despite the fact the state has voted for the Democrat in every presidential election since 1988, voters are split pretty evenly between Democrats, Republicans, and independents. So Obama’s strong leads depend on him locking up 93-94% of Democrats’ votes regardless of his opponent, a strength and consistency almost unheard of at this early point in the cycle. And he leads with nonpartisans by six (versus Huckabee) to 27 points (against Palin), and is showing appeal across the aisle, earning more Republican votes than any of the GOP contenders earns Democratic support.
But it is not just that holding the Republicans at only 72-82% of the GOP. They are leaving 12-17% of their crew on the fence, while only 2-4% of Democrats are undecided. This leaves room for improvement when the nomination is decided, but it also suggests a weakness and a potential for Republican voters to stay home, since all of these candidates are so well-known that voters should already have a good idea whether or not they will support them.
“Wisconsin was one of the closest states in the country in 2000 and 2004 before going solidly for Obama in 2008,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It looks like Obama would win the state pretty comfortably if the voting was today, if not quite by his margin of victory three years ago.”
PPP surveyed 768 Wisconsin voters from February 24th to 27th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ………….. 26%
Unfavorable……….. 49%
Not sure ……………. 25%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable ………….. 34%
Unfavorable……….. 37%
Not sure ……………. 29%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ………….. 32%
Unfavorable……….. 60%
Not sure ……………. 8%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ………….. 30%
Unfavorable……….. 41%
Not sure ……………. 29%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable ………….. 36%
Unfavorable……….. 35%
Not sure ……………. 29%
Q7 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 35%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
African-American …………………………………….. 6%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
