Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama has maintained his standing in many swing states he won in 2008 better than he has in some heavily blue states, including Maine. But while he now looks weaker against three of his potential 2012 opponents than he did against John McCain, Maine and most traditionally blue states are so Democratic that he is set to win them by a healthy margin anyway.
Mitt Romney is, as in his native Massachusetts, other New England states, and indeed most states, the president’s closest competitor, down 49-41. That is less than half Obama’s 17-point victory over McCain in the state, a margin only exceeded against Sarah Palin (57-35). Mike Huckabee trails, 51-39, and Newt Gingrich, 53-37.
Obama has enormous leads with independents, who, though not as big a proportion of the electorate as in 2008, are still a sizeable quarter of voters. The president earns their support by margins of 17 (against Romney) to a whopping 35 points (versus Palin).
He also earns more Republican support than any of the Republicans do Democratic votes against every candidate except Romney. While the president locks up 86-90% of his base, the Republicans can muster only 70% (Palin) to 80% (Romney) of theirs. As in many states, Republicans are still on the fence more than are Democrats, which suggests either room for improvement or a danger of these voters staying home, which was their problem in 2008 and Democrats’ last fall. 10% (with Huckabee as the nominee) to 14% (Gingrich) of the GOP are undecided, versus only 3-5% of Democrats.
“What we’re finding in a lot of typically Democratic states that went even more Democratic than usual in 2008 is that things are sort of reverting to normal,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Obama will win them again, but the margins may be a little less lofty than last time around.”
There is still some hangover from the historically Republican 2010 election in Maine, with Democrats only outnumbering Republicans in this electorate, 39-36, versus the 35-26 margin reported by 2008’s exit polls. In PPP’s final survey of the state before the 2010 election, Republicans exceeded Democrats, 38-35.
PPP surveyed 1,247 Maine voters from March 3rd to 6th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ………….. 28%
Unfavorable……….. 55%
Not sure ……………. 17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable ………….. 31%
Unfavorable……….. 45%
Not sure ……………. 24%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ………….. 31%
Unfavorable……….. 64%
Not sure ……………. 6%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ………….. 34%
Unfavorable……….. 46%
Not sure ……………. 21%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 57%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 26%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
