Raleigh, N.C. – Though Mitt Romney may be starting to grab hold of the Republican presidential nomination, his months-long struggle to sway conservative voters and eke out a delegate lead has taken a greater toll on his personal image than it has on the other candidates, relative to where he started. He used to be the most electable candidate against President Obama, but in PPP’s latest monthly national poll, both Rick Santorum and Ron Paul perform better in the popular vote than Romney does.
Obama leads Romney by four points (48-44), but he tops Santorum (48-45) and Paul (46-43) by only three. Only Newt Gingrich does worse than the frontrunner (42-50). The bright side for the Republicans is that Obama has slipped a little since last month, when he led Santorum by five, Romney by seven, Paul by eight, and Gingrich by 12, and that the president is down relative to 2008, when he beat John McCain by about seven points nationwide.
The reason Obama continues to do so well, despite voters being split on his job performance (48% both approving and disapproving), is that the Republicans are so strongly disliked. Santorum is the most “popular,” but only 36% have a favorable impression of him, and 53% an unfavorable one. That is down from 39-46 in February. Romney sits at 33-58, Paul at 30-58, and Gingrich at 28-61. Obama ties Paul with independents but leads Romney by six, Santorum by eight, and Gingrich by 15.
Democrats are, at this point, more united than the GOP is, and Libertarian Gary Johnson’s candidacy is earning 7% of the vote, helping Obama to a wider 46-39 edge over Romney in a three-way battle. Johnson does not weaken the president at all with Democrats, but pulls Romney from 78% to 71% of his party.
“Barack Obama continues to lead for reelection but the Republican candidates have gained a little ground since last month,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 900 American voters from March 15th to 17th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q10 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q11 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 25%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%
Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
