Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s latest monthly poll of North Carolina finds President Obama taking the largest lead he has ever had in the state over his presumed opponent this fall, Mitt Romney. Obama tops the former Massachusetts governor by five points, 49-44.
The president has led or tied Romney in all but one poll in the Tar Heel State since PPP began tracking the race after the 2010 election, but for two months in a row he has now posted 49%—almost the roughly 50% he achieved against John McCain four years ago. Obama’s low-water mark was 44% in March 2011, but for the last six polls, he has either risen or stayed steady, and is up four points overall in that time frame. Romney has achieved 46% four out of the last six months, but that is his high-water mark so far.
The president’s net approval rating is in positive territory here for the first time in 10 months. 49% approve and 48% disapprove; it was 49-all last month, and 48-49 in February.
At the same time, Romney is also getting less popular. 31% saw him favorably and 56% unfavorably last month. That is now 29-58. Republicans are starting to see him slightly more favorably (from 48-34 to 52-31), but he is tanking with independents (from 36-53 to 25-62) and Democrats (from 15-75 to 12-77).
For all his personal image woes, Romney is still the most competitive of his challengers here. Ron Paul lags by an identical five-point margin and Newt Gingrich by 10. Had he stayed in the race, Rick Santorum would have trailed by six.
“Barack Obama’s numbers in North Carolina are the strongest they’ve been in over a year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Mitt Romney’s been weakened considerably by the Republican nomination process, although there’s plenty of time for him to recover now.”
PPP surveyed 975 North Carolina voters from April 4th to 7th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 64%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 24%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American …………………………………….. 23%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q15
252………………………………………………………… 14%
336………………………………………………………… 18%
704………………………………………………………… 17%
828………………………………………………………… 15%
910………………………………………………………… 13%
919………………………………………………………… 23%
