Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest
Virginia poll finds Barack Obama leading by 5 points, 51-46. Obama’s lead is
unchanged from a month ago when we found him leading 50-45 in the state. He may
not be seeing a bump from the convention in the state at this point, but he was
in a pretty good position to begin with.
Virginia continues to look like it may be something of a firewall state for
Obama. PPP has now polled it 9 times this cycle, and President Obama has led by
at least 4 points on all 9 of the polls. He’s been ahead by 5 points, 5 points,
8 points, and 8 points over the course of the four surveys we’ve conducted in
2012.
“Barack Obama continues to look like the definite favorite in Virginia,”
said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “And it’s hard to imagine
a scenario where Obama would win Virginia but lose the election.”
Obama has a slight advantage over Romney (49-47) in terms of who voters
trust more on the economy and a wider (51-45) edge over Romney on foreign
policy. Only 41% of voters say they approve of how Romney reacted to the
situation in Libya this week while 48% express disapproval.
Obama’s leading 56-42 with women, 91-7 with African Americans, 63-30 with other
non-white voters, and 56-37 with young voters. Romney has a 51-45 advantage
with men, a 57-40 one with whites, and a 54-43 lead with seniors. Romney is
slightly ahead with independents, 47-45, but Obama’s party is more unified with
Democrats supporting him 95-4 while Republicans go for Romney by a slightly
weaker 92-7 margin.
There has been a lot of talk about the possibility of Virgil Goode tipping
the election to Obama in Virginia but our new poll finds that his support has
mostly faded. When third party candidates are included on this poll Obama leads
Romney 49-45 with Gary Johnson at 2% and Goode and Jill Stein both at just 1%.
Goode’s net favorability with Republican voters has dropped a net 15 points in
the last month from +3 (19/16) to -12 (14/26).
PPP surveyed 1,021 likely Virginia voters from
September 13th to 16th. The margin of error for the overall survey
is +/-3.1%. This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q4 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q5 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of foreign policy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Virgil Goode?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q7 If the candidates for President this fall were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, Libertarian Gary Johnson,
Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode, and
Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who would
you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 2%
Virgil Goode ……………………………………………. 1%
Jill Stein …………………………………………………. 1%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q8 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 62%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 25%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 13%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of how Mitt
Romney reacted to the situation in Libya this
week?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 Do you think Mitt Romney should release his
tax returns for the last 12 years, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 50%
He should not………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 17%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
