Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 51-47, up from a
49-48 margin a week ago.
It’s starting to look like Obama might have turned the corner with his wins
in the second and third debates. When asked who they think won the debates as a
whole Obama wins out 45/43, suggesting he really fixed his problems from the
first debate with the second two. Obama’s approval is on positive ground at 51/48,
while Romney’s favorability is in negative territory at 47/51. Ohioans trust
Obama over Romney on both the economy (52/46) and foreign policy (54/44).
Obama’s built up a big lead among early voters in the state. 36% say they’ve
already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 63/36
margin. Romney’s up 53/45 with those yet to vote.
The main shift from a week ago is Democrats further unifying around Obama as
the election nears. Last week he led 86/14 with them in the state and now he’s
pushed that up further to 88/10. Romney continues to lead with independents,
50/46, but that’s down a tick from 49/42 last week.
“The margins have bounced around but we’ve found Barack Obama leading Mitt
Romney on every Ohio poll we’ve done all year,” said Dean Debnam, President of
Public Policy Polling. “And with the election barely a week away we find
Obama’s position in the state becoming a little bit stronger.”
The Senate race really appears to be getting away from Josh Mandel in the
closing stages. Sherrod Brown’s opened up a 53/42 lead. Brown’s winning
independents 48/44 even as Obama loses them, and he has 89% of Democrats lined
up behind him while only 81% of Republicans are committed to Mandel. Brown’s
approval is on slightly positive ground at 47/44, while Mandel continues to be
very unpopular with only 38% of voters seeing him favorably to 51% with a
negative opinion.
PPP surveyed 718
likely voters from October 26th to 28th. The margin of error for the
survey is +/-3.7%. This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Sherrod Brown’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .47%
Disapprove…………. .44%
Not sure …………….. . 9%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Josh Mandel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q6 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Sherrod Brown and Republican Josh Mandel. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 53%
Josh Mandel …………………………………………… 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q7 Have you already voted, either at an early
voting site or with an absentee ballot?
Yes………………………………………………………… 36%
No …………………………………………………………. 64%
Q8 Issue 2 would remove the authority of elected
representatives and grant new authority to
appointed officials to establish congressional
and state legislative district lines. It would
create a state-funded commission of appointed
individuals from a limited pool of applicants to
replace the aforementioned. The commission
would consist of 12 members as follows: four
affiliated with the largest political party, four
affiliated with the second largest political party,
and four not affiliated with either of the two
largest political parties. Affirmative votes of
seven of 12 members are needed to select a
plan. If the election was today, would you vote
for or against Issue 2?
For ………………………………………………………… 37%
Against…………………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q9 Who do you think won the Presidential debates
overall?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q11 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of foreign policy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q12 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 64%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 24%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 12%
Q13 If there was an election for Congress today,
would you vote Democratic or Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 50%
Republican……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q17 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 83%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%