Raleigh, N.C. – – PPP’s newest
Virginia poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 50-47 in the state, down
from a 51-46 advantage three weeks ago. This is the closest we’ve found the
race in Virginia the entire cycle, but Obama continues to find himself at the
critical 50% mark in a state where Romney probably can’t afford to lose.
Romney’s performance in the debate on Wednesday seems to have helped his
image with Virginia voters. They think he won the debate by a 61/28 margin,
including 71/17 with independents. Compared to our last poll he’s seen a 10
point gain in his net favorability rating from -2 at 47/49 in mid-September to
now +8 at 52/44. The problem for Romney is that most of that gain has come with
Democrats, from 6/90 to 21/76. But still only 8% of those Democrats are
actually voting for Romney. Much of the improvement in Romney’s image
is people going from hating Romney and voting for Obama to respecting Romney
but still voting for Obama.
The reason the race hasn’t moved much despite the improvement in Romney’s
image is that Obama’s held steady over the last three weeks in spite of his
poor debate performance. 3 weeks ago 50% of Virginians approved of him and 48%
disapproved. Now 50% of Virginians approve of him and 48% disapprove. There’s
been no movement whatsoever in perceptions of his job performance.
Obama leads Romney 52-44 with women while keeping things about equal with
men, trailing Romney just 49-48. Romney’s up 57-40 with white voters, but would
need to win them by a lot more than that to overcome Obama’s 90-8 lead with
African Americans and 59-34 advantage with other nonwhite voters. The future is
looking bright for Democrats in Virginia with voters under 45 supporting Obama
59-38. The race is only close overall because of a 55-43 advantage for Romney
with seniors.
“We’ve been calling Virginia Obama’s firewall state the entire cycle and
this is just more evidence for it,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy
Polling. “Even after one of his worst weeks of the campaign Obama continues to
hold the lead there.”
PPP surveyed 725 likely Virginia voters from
October 4th to 7th. The margin of error for the overall survey is
+/-3.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized
by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through
automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q4 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q5 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of foreign policy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q6 Who do you think won the debate between
Barack Obama and Mitt Romney this week?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 28%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Virgil Goode?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q8 If the candidates for President this fall were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, Libertarian Gary Johnson,
Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode, and
Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who would
you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 4%
Virgil Goode ……………………………………………. 1%
Jill Stein …………………………………………………. 0%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%
Q9 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 65%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 23%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 12%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Big Bird?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q11 Do you support or oppose federal funding for
PBS?
Support ………………………………………………….. 55%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 13%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 18%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45 years old, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If
you are older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
