Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama is even struggling in Vermont, compared to 2008—but his 37-point victory over John McCain there means “struggling” is a relative term, to say the least. He still beats any potential Republican nominee by at least 20 points.
Neighboring Massachusetts’ Mitt Romney unsurprisingly does the best of the GOP bunch, not only because of his regional ties but because he performs the best everywhere. His 54-34 deficit is yards ahead of Michele Bachmann’s 58-30, Rick Perry’s 57-28, Herman Cain’s 58-26, and Sarah Palin’s 62-28. That Palin even outperforms McCain on the margin is a sign of the president’s slippage in this heavily white yet progressive state.
It is not a matter of a decline within his own party—Obama still locks them up, and that is a large part of the battle in Vermont, where Democrats have a 13-point identification advantage over the GOP. Most of the decline is because two of every five voters claims to not align with either party, and 14-23% of them remain undecided. The president still leads by 25 to 42 points with them, but that is down from the 49-point victory reported in the 2008 exit polls. If the undecided independents were assigned proportionately to where the decided ones are, the president would still only match his 2008 margin against Palin. He also only achieves the double-digit GOP support he got against McCain now against McCain’s running mate.
The president’s 53-40 approval-disapproval spread remains his sixth best out of the 45 states in which PPP has polled him, topping only his native Hawaii, Massachusetts, Maryland, and Connecticut, and barely behind Rhode Island and ahead of California. Even his 20-point margin over Romney matches Kerry’s victory over Bush and outdoes Gore’s edge by 10 points.
“There are states where the president can slip a lot and still win without a sweat, and Vermont is one of them,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 1,233 Vermont voters from July 28th to 31st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 53%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 66%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 58%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 58%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 26%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 62%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 28%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 57%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 28%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 32%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 60%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 25%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 20%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 9%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 24%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 40%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
