Raleigh, N.C. – In Michigan, native son Mitt Romney is the only of the four GOP presidential frontrunners who currently threatens Obama’s chances of winning that state again in 2012. The same was true in results PPP released last week in Romney’s adopted home state of Massachusetts. Here, the president tops the others by 12-21 points, but edges Romney by only four.
Obama won the state by almost 17 points with a heavily Democratic turnout two years ago, but here he even dominates in an electorate in which Democrats and Republicans are in equal proportion, at 35% each. He routs Sarah Palin, 56-35; Newt Gingrich, 52-37; and Mike Huckabee, 51-39. In an interesting test of a race that will not happen, Obama also beats popular incoming governor Rick Snyder, who himself scored an easy victory last month, 49-38. But Romney trails only 43-47.
Obama’s formula for success is locking up Democrats, getting more crossover support than the Republicans do, and beating all the Republicans but Romney by double digits with independents, who make up 30% of the voters, more than in many states. He takes unaffiliated voters over Palin by a whopping 36-point margin, and by 27 over Gingrich and 21 over Huckabee. Against Romney, though, the story of that close contest is the two dividing the independent vote, with an insignificant 42-41 edge for Obama. Romney also does a better job with the GOP base than the others.
The president does this well despite only a bare majority approving of his job performance, and 45% still disapproving. But he is, by comparison, considerably more popular than most of the Republicans. Of the four who will likely join the race for the White House, Romney’s tepid 39-37 favorability rating looks golden next to Palin’s 34-60, Gingrich’s 28-50, and even Huckabee’s 37-40. Snyder is actually by far the most popular of all six candidates, at 48-26.
“Michigan, like much of the Midwest, was tough territory for Democrats in 2010. But it looks like President Obama will once again easily win the state by regaining the favor of independents who had abandoned his party—unless Mitt Romney is his opponent,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 1,224 Michigan voters from December 3rd to 6th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Snyder?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q7 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q8 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 56%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Snyder, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Rick Snyder ……………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 45%
Conservative…………………………………………… 38%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 82%
African-American …………………………………….. 14%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 31%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%
