Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama’s net approval rating has taken an 11-point dive since PPP last polled Nevada in early January, from a positive 50-46 to 45-52. And while he led four of his possible opponents by one to thirteen points in the Silver State then, he now trails Mitt Romney by three, and leads the others by only two to 11 in a state he won by over 12 points in 2008.
Though they are only a fifth of the electorate, essentially all of the president’s decline has come with independents, who approved 55-41 in January but disapprove almost 2:1 now (33-65), a 46-point tailspin. Accordingly, Obama has slid with them from -11 to -31 against Romney, from +23 to -17 against Mike Huckabee, and from +27 to -11 against Newt Gingrich. Even Sarah Palin leads the president by two with independents, which she has not in almost any other state. She trailed by 22 in January. Donald Trump leads by four, but was not tested previously.
Most of the Republicans’ popularity has declined just as much as the president’s. Romney had a 47-37 favorable-unfavorable margin, but now sports a dead-even 43-43. Huckabee has declined from 43-39 to 36-45, Gingrich from 35-51 to 33-53, and Palin from 36-58 to 34-61. Trump is just as unpopular as Palin (32-59).
Obama trails Romney 43-46, after leading 47-46 in January. He leads Huckabee 45-43 (51-41), Gingrich 46-42 (51-40), Trump 47-41, and Palin 50-39 (52-39). This is the closest Trump has gotten against Obama; PPP tested him in Iowa (-16), New Hampshire (-14), North Carolina (-12), and nationally (-14). With Trump running as an independent, Obama would beat Romney and Trump, 42-34-20, and Huckabee and Trump, 44-30-21.
“April has definitely not been a good month for Barack Obama,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Our swing state polls in Iowa, Pennsylvania, and now Nevada have shown him in much worse shape than he was three months ago.”
PPP surveyed 491 Nevada voters from April 21st to 24th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Donald Trump running as an
independent, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 34%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 20%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mike
Huckabee, and Donald Trump running as an
independent, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 30%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 21%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 7%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q18 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 16%
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American …………………………………….. 8%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
