Raleigh, N.C. – The story has not really changed since PPP last took a look at the race for the White House in South Carolina. In late January, President Obama trailed Mitt Romney and the state’s junior Senator Jim DeMint, while leading the other candidates tested by small margins. That is still true. Romney tops the president, 50-41, up slightly from 49-42 four months ago and now matching John McCain’s surprisingly close victory margin in 2008. DeMint also leads, 47-44 (47-45 in January), not a good showing for a native son, particularly in a state in which Obama should not be competitive.
But the president is competitive against DeMint and everyone but Romney, the current leader in the Palmetto State’s GOP primary contest. In fact, facing any other nominee right now, Obama would be the first Democrat to take the state’s newly expanded nine electoral votes since Jimmy Carter 36 years ago. Obama ties Tim Pawlenty at 42%, and leads Newt Gingrich, 46-44 (44-43); Herman Cain, 43-40; and Sarah Palin, 48-43 (47-41). Against everyone but Romney, Obama leads with independents and earns more Republican votes than any of his potential opponents do Democratic votes.
Cain and Pawlenty have never been tested against Obama here before. While it could change when more voters get to know him, Cain’s race has had no impact on his chances in the general election so far. He does just as badly with black voters as the others, and better than Palin and about equally as well as Pawlenty and Gingrich with whites. Gingrich’s fortunes are on the decline seemingly everywhere. His favorability rating has plummeted 13 points, from 32% favorable and 46% unfavorable to 26-53. However, Romney’s have also dropped 10 points, from 42-34 to 40-42.
“South Carolina’s not a state that should really be winnable for Barack Obama but if Republicans nominate one of their weaker candidates it’s possible,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If he did win the state it would likely be part of a 400+ plus electoral vote landslide.”
PPP surveyed 741 South Carolina voters from June 2nd to 5th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jim
DeMint’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Jim
DeMint, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Jim DeMint……………………………………………… 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 50%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 10%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 25%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 26%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
