Raleigh, N.C. – Texans are feeling better about their governor since he decided to run for President, but he would still perform worse in his own state than John McCain did in 2008. In fact, President Obama leads two of his potential opponents by small margins and comes closer to winning the state against all the others than he did three years ago, when he lost by almost 12 points.
In June, PPP actually found Obama leading Perry, 47-45. Perry has reversed that significantly, topping the president now, 51-44. His chief competitor, Mitt Romney, now leads only 47-41, versus 50-42 three months ago. Paul, who led Obama 45-40 in the previous poll, now leads only 43-42. Newt Gingrich actually trails 46-45, as does Michele Bachmann, 45-43. In June, Bachmann led 47-44. Paul is the only candidate to top the president with independents, and only by one point, while Obama leads Romney by one, Perry by 11, Bachmann by 13, and Gingrich by 15 with that group.
Voters here are up on Perry, from only 43% approving and 52% approving in June to 45-48 now. But that still ties him for the 29th most popular of 42 governors on which PPP has polled. While Perry is heading in the right direction, Romney, Paul, and Bachmann are going the wrong way. In June, 30% had a favorable impression of Paul, and 46% an unfavorable one. That is now 29-54, with essentially everyone who did not have an opinion before now having a negative one. Voters have moved from 37-43 on Romney to 32-49. Worst off is Bachmann, who was the only candidate seen positively in June, at 39-36, but is now the least popular, at 27-55. Gingrich is almost as disliked, at 29-56. Perry is now the only Republican with a better approval or favorability rating than the president, of whom 40% approve and 55% disapprove, down slightly from 42-55.
“Rick Perry still isn’t particularly popular in his home state of Texas,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But at least it looks like he would win the state now, which is a positive development for him compared to 3 months ago.”
PPP surveyed 569 Texas voters from September 15th to 18th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Perry’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 51%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 50%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 18%
White …………………………………………………….. 64%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
