Raleigh, N.C. – Though he is seen better now than when PPP last polled the state before last fall’s Tea-Party-enthused election, President Obama is still very unpopular in Kentucky. Despite that, if the 2012 election were held today, he would defeat two of his potential opponents and take the state’s eight electoral votes for his party for the first time since Bill Clinton’s near-landslide re-election in 1996.
39% of voters approve and 56% disapprove of the president’s job performance, up from a 31-62 margin late last October. That still makes it his seventh or eighth worst standing in any of the 45 states in which PPP has measured him. 32% of the state’s conservative Democrats disapprove, to two-thirds approving; they make up 55% of voters. Republicans almost unanimously disapprove, and independents fall at 31-66.
None of the Republicans is seen very well either. Fresh-faced Rick Perry is best off, with a 35-41 favorability rating, followed by Mitt Romney’s 30-47, Michele Bachmann’s 30-50, Sarah Palin’s 33-58, and Newt Gingrich’s 22-63. As such, the president trails Perry only 49-42; Romney, 48-40; and Bachmann, 46-43. He actually leads Gingrich, 47-44, and Palin, 48-44. 19% to 24% of Democrats defect to the Republicans, and they lead the president by 10 to 25 points with independents.
Poll respondents—likely voters in this fall’s gubernatorial election—report having voted for McCain over Obama by only four points, when he actually won by 16. In that sense, Romney and Perry actually improve on McCain’s victory margin. But Obama would outperform his 2008 pace in the state against the others, something PPP is finding in nearly every state.
“The president is not likely to win Kentucky in the end,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “In fact, he’ll probably get slaughtered. But even here, these Republican candidates are pretty weak.”
PPP surveyed 600 likely Kentucky voters from August 25th to 28th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 28%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 55%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 9%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. IfAfrican American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
African American……………………………………… 6%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 13%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
