Raleigh, N.C. – In Alaska, Kentucky, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Washington, all but the first two of which President Obama won in 2008, his margin for re-election against a generic Republican opponent has fallen by an average of 12 points since his actual 2008 victories in those states. He lost to John McCain in these six states by an average of less than a point, but now trails by almost 13. The president can take heart, however, that these results come among the significantly more Republican electorate that turned out to vote against his party two weeks ago than the voters he will ask to re-up him for another four years.
Alaska is the only state of the 18 in which PPP did final polls for the 2010 election where Obama actually looks better than he did two years ago. With their now unpopular then governor Sarah Palin on the ballot, she and McCain won the state, 60-38, but the generic Republican now leads only 52-40, a rather large improvement of 10 points for Obama in an unlikely place—a deep-red state. In most other states, including the bluest, there was a sometimes quite large pro-Republican enthusiasm gap, but Scott McAdams and Lisa Murkowski benefited from an eight-point pro-Democratic gap two weeks ago.
In Kentucky, where Obama has the worst job approval numbers of any PPP has measured, it is no surprise Obama is down 34-59, a slide of almost nine points from his actual 41-58 loss to McCain. But more importantly, he trails in four swing states in which he prevailed two years ago, and there the declines have been large. His deficit is only 46-47 in Washington, but that is down almost 18 points from his 57-41 victory in 2008. He also lags 40-55 in Ohio, a slide of 19 points from his 51-47 win; 43-52 in Nevada, down 21 from his 55-43 win; and 40-55 in North Carolina, a 15-point slide in a state he won by less than 1%.
Besides the enthusiasm gap, Obama is suffering from the same two other problems many of his party’s candidates had in the midterms: defections by the independents who favored him and the Democrats in 2008, and a slightly less unified party base than the Republicans. Those trends may or may not hold two years from now.
Up to five times as many Obama voters are pledging for his GOP opponent as McCain supporters for Obama, but even with that erosion, the picture would improve just with a shift in turnout toward a presidential-year model. If the partisan breakdown of the 2012 electorate looked more like 2008’s, the president would improve eight points to lead the unnamed Republican candidate 50-43 in Washington. He would still trail 46-50 in Nevada, a five-point boost; 45-51 in Ohio, a nine-point jump; and 44-52 in North Carolina, a seven-point improvement. There would be no change in Kentucky.
Looking ahead to who the actual GOP nominee may be, Sarah Palin’s best showing is not in her home state, but she does have a razor-thin lead in two other states. The four frontrunners are in a four-way statistical tie in Alaska, with Palin actually in fourth place at 15% to Mike Huckabee’s 17% and Newt Gingrich’s and Mitt Romney’s 16%. The same is true in Washington, with Palin at 19% to Romney’s 18%, Huckabee’s 17%, and Gingrich’s 15%, and in Ohio, with Palin at 20% to Gingrich’s 19%, Huckabee’s 17%, and Romney’s 14%.
Romney continues to hold a strong lead in important early-primary Nevada, with 34% to Gingrich’s 21%, Palin’s 18%, and Huckabee’s 10%.
Huckabee has a decent lead in Kentucky with 28% to Palin’s 19%, Gingrich’s 17%, and Romney’s 14%. Gingrich has a lead for the first time in one of these 18 states: North Carolina, where he polls at 23% to Huckabee’s and Palin’s 19%, and Romney’s 14%.
Possible, currently far less known contenders John Thune, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitch Daniels received support in the low single digits in each state.
PPP surveyed 1,539 likely 2010 Alaska voters, including 743 typical Republican primary voters, from October 30th to 31st, for a +/- 2.5% margin of error for the entire sample, and +/- 3.6% for the GOP primary sample. PPP surveyed 1,021 likely 2010 Kentucky voters, including 320 typical Republican primary voters, from October 28th to 30th, for a +/- 3.1% margin of error for the entire sample, and +/- 5.5% for the GOP primary sample. PPP surveyed 682 likely 2010 Nevada voters, including 272 typical Republican primary voters, from October 30th to 31st, for a +/- 3.8% margin of error for the entire sample, and +/- 5.9% for the GOP primary sample. PPP surveyed 847 likely 2010 North Carolina voters, including 307 typical Republican primary voters, from October 30th to 31st, for a +/- 3.4% margin of error for the entire sample, and +/- 5.6% for the GOP primary sample. PPP surveyed 1,356 likely 2010 Ohio voters, including 500 typical Republican primary voters, from October 28th to 30th, for a +/- 2.7% margin of error for the entire sample, and +/- 4.4% for the GOP primary sample. PPP surveyed 2,055 likely 2010 Washington voters, including 712 typical Republican primary voters, from October 29th to 31st, for a +/- 2.2% margin of error for the entire sample, and +/- 3.7% for the GOP primary sample. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Alaska Survey Results:
Q1 Generally speaking if there was an election
today would you vote to reelect Barack Obama
or would you vote for his Republican
opponent?
Barack Obama …… 40%
Republican
opponent ……………52%
Undecided…………. 8%
Q2 Generally speaking, do you vote in Democratic
or Republican primaries, or do you not usually
vote in primaries?
Democratic
primaries ……………33%
Republican
primaries ……………53%
Don’t usually vote
in primaries…………15%
Q3 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mike
Pence, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels……… 2%
Newt Gingrich ……. 16%
Mike Huckabee ….. 17%
Sarah Palin ……….. 15%
Tim Pawlenty……… 5%
Mike Pence ……….. 2%
Mitt Romney………. 16%
John Thune ……….. 2%
Someone
else/Undecided …..25%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 54%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q5 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 43%
Conservative…………………………………………… 42%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 21%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 48%
Q8 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 77%
Other……………………………………………………… 23%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 34%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 16%
Kentucky Survey Results:
Q1 Generally speaking if there was an election
today would you vote to reelect Barack Obama
or would you vote for his Republican
opponent?
Barack Obama …… 34%
Republican
opponent ……………59%
Undecided…………. 7%
Q2 Generally speaking, do you vote in Democratic
or Republican primaries, or do you not usually
vote in primaries?
Democratic
primaries ……………57%
Republican
primaries ……………35%
Don’t usually vote
in primaries…………9%
Q3 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mike
Pence, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels……… 4%
Newt Gingrich ……. 17%
Mike Huckabee ….. 26%
Sarah Palin ……….. 19%
Tim Pawlenty……… 1%
Mike Pence ……….. 2%
Mitt Romney………. 13%
John Thune ……….. 0%
Someone
else/Undecided …..16%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 56%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%
Q5 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 42%
Conservative…………………………………………… 44%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 53%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 10%
Q8 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
African-American …………………………………….. 6%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
North Carolina Survey Results:
Q1 Generally speaking if there was an election
today would you vote to reelect Barack Obama
or would you vote for his Republican
opponent?
Barack Obama …… 40%
Republican
opponent ……………55%
Undecided…………. 5%
Q2 Generally speaking, do you vote in Democratic
or Republican primaries, or do you not usually
vote in primaries?
Democratic
primaries ……………48%
Republican
primaries ……………40%
Don’t usually vote
in primaries…………12%
Q3 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mike
Pence, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels……… 2%
Newt Gingrich ……. 23%
Mike Huckabee ….. 19%
Sarah Palin ……….. 19%
Tim Pawlenty……… 4%
Mike Pence ……….. 2%
Mitt Romney………. 14%
John Thune ……….. 0%
Someone
else/Undecided …..16%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 51%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%
Q5 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 37%
Conservative…………………………………………… 47%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 17%
Q8 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African-American …………………………………….. 19%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Ohio Survey Results:
Q1 Generally speaking if there was an election
today would you vote to reelect Barack Obama
or would you vote for his Republican
opponent?
Barack Obama …… 40%
Republican
opponent ……………55%
Undecided…………. 5%
Q2 Generally speaking, do you vote in Democratic
or Republican primaries, or do you not usually
vote in primaries?
Democratic
primaries ……………44%
Republican
primaries ……………44%
Don’t usually vote
in primaries…………12%
Q3 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mike
Pence, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels……… 3%
Newt Gingrich ……. 19%
Mike Huckabee ….. 17%
Sarah Palin ……….. 20%
Tim Pawlenty……… 6%
Mike Pence ……….. 2%
Mitt Romney………. 14%
John Thune ……….. 0%
Someone
else/Undecided …..18%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 49%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q5 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 40%
Conservative…………………………………………… 43%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q8 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
Nevada Survey Results:
Q1 Generally speaking if there was an election
today would you vote to reelect Barack Obama
or would you vote for his Republican
opponent?
Barack Obama …… 43%
Republican
opponent ……………52%
Undecided…………. 4%
Q2 Generally speaking, do you vote in Democratic
or Republican primaries, or do you not usually
vote in primaries?
Democratic
primaries ……………42%
Republican
primaries ……………43%
Don’t usually vote
in primaries…………15%
Q3 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mike
Pence, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels……… 1%
Newt Gingrich ……. 21%
Mike Huckabee ….. 11%
Sarah Palin ……….. 16%
Tim Pawlenty……… 2%
Mike Pence ……….. 1%
Mitt Romney………. 34%
John Thune ……….. 0%
Someone
else/Undecided …..13%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%
Q5 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 42%
Conservative…………………………………………… 41%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q8 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 20%
White …………………………………………………….. 69%
African-American …………………………………….. 8%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 34%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Washington Survey Results:
Q1 Generally speaking if there was an election
today would you vote to reelect Barack Obama
or would you vote for his Republican
opponent?
Barack Obama …… 46%
Republican
opponent ……………47%
Undecided…………. 7%
Q2 Generally speaking, do you vote in Democratic
or Republican primaries, or do you not usually
vote in primaries?
Democratic
primaries ……………46%
Republican
primaries ……………41%
Don’t usually vote
in primaries…………13%
Q3 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mike
Pence, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels……… 1%
Newt Gingrich ……. 15%
Mike Huckabee ….. 17%
Sarah Palin ……….. 19%
Tim Pawlenty……… 4%
Mike Pence ……….. 2%
Mitt Romney………. 18%
John Thune ……….. 0%
Someone
else/Undecided …..24%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 42%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q5 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 24%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 35%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%
Q8 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 88%
Other……………………………………………………… 12%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
