Raleigh, N.C. – In Florida, Maine, Minnesota, Texas, West Virginia, and Wisconsin, all but two of which President Obama won in 2008, his margin for re-election against a generic Republican opponent has fallen by an average of almost 16 points since his actual 2008 victories in those states. He beat John McCain in these six states by an average of about three points, but now trails by almost 13. The president can take heart, however, that these results come among the significantly more Republican electorate that turned out to vote against his party a week ago than the voters he will ask to re-up him for another four years.
The drop has been most severe in the states Obama won by the largest margins. He took Maine, 58-41, but now trails there, 44-50, a slide of 23 points, identical to that in Wisconsin, where he won, 56-42, and is now behind, 42-51. The Tea Party factions were particularly enthused in these two states, electing Ron Johnson and Paul LePage last week. But the president is also behind in swing-state Florida, where he won, 51-48, and is now down, 40-54, as well as competitive but blue-leaning Minnesota (down to a narrow 45-47 deficit from his 54-44 win two years ago). Obama also lags in two red states he lost by double-digit margins: Texas (down to 35-59 from 44-56) and West Virginia (at 34-56 from 43-56).
Besides the enthusiasm gap, Obama is suffering from the same two other problems many of his party’s candidates had in the midterms: defections by the independents who favored him and the Democrats in 2008, and a slightly less unified party base than the Republicans. Those trends may or may not hold two years from now.
Two to nine times as many Obama voters are pledging for his GOP opponent as McCain supporters for Obama, but even with that erosion, the picture would improve drastically in three of the states just with a shift in turnout toward a presidential-year model. If the partisan breakdown of the 2012 electorate looked more like 2008’s, the president would improve eight points over his generic re-elect to lead the unnamed Republican, 48-46, in Maine, and he would be up nine and two points, respectively, to a 47-47 tie in each Wisconsin and Minnesota. He would still trail badly in the other three, but would be up four points to lag 43-53 in Florida, up three in Texas to 37-58, and up one in West Virginia to 36-57.
“Barack Obama appears to be in pretty rough shape in a lot of these states right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “His path back to strength is twofold- reenergize the Democratic voters who dropped off in 2010 and convince independent voters again that even if he’s not perfect he’s a better alternative than the GOP.”
Looking ahead to who that actual GOP nominee may be, Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee appear strong in these six states. Mitt Romney generally does not. Unlike in his other two neighboring states, New Hampshire and Connecticut, in which PPP released results Tuesday, Romney does not lead in Maine. He trails Palin, 18-23, there, with Huckabee’s 16% and Newt Gingrich’s 14% close behind. In Wisconsin, bordering his native Michigan, Romney comes in fourth with only 12% to Palin’s 18%, Huckabee’s 15%, and Gingrich’s 14%.
Romney does lead in potentially important early-primary Florida, with 28% to Palin’s 22%, and Huckabee’s and Gingrich’s 15%.
Palin has a 22-20 lead over Huckabee in Texas, followed by Gingrich and Romney at 15% each. Similarly, in West Virginia, Palin tops Huckabee, 25-22, with Gingrich and Romney also at 15% there.
Minnesota’s outgoing governor, Tim Pawlenty, has nothing to brag about in his home state, clinging to an inconsequential 19-18 lead over Palin; nipping at their heels are Huckabee at 14% and Gingrich and Romney at 11% apiece.
Possible, currently far less known contenders John Thune and Mitch Daniels received support in the low single digits in each state, and with the exception of Minnesota and his 8% in neighboring Wisconsin, Pawlenty is also in that boat.
PPP surveyed 773 likely 2010 Florida voters, including 280 typical Republican primary voters, from October 30th to 31st, for a +/- 3.5% margin of error for the entire sample, and +/- 5.9% for the GOP primary sample. PPP surveyed 1,812 likely 2010 Maine voters, including 614 typical Republican primary voters, from October 26th to 28th, for a +/- 2.3% margin of error for the entire sample, and +/- 4.0% for the GOP primary sample. PPP surveyed 2,058 likely 2010 Minnesota voters, including 499 typical Republican primary voters, from October 27th to 29th, for a +/- 2.2% margin of error for the entire sample, and +/- 4.4% for the GOP primary sample. PPP surveyed 568 likely 2010 Texas voters, including 254 typical Republican primary voters, from October 26th to 28th, for a +/- 4.1% margin of error for the entire sample, and +/- 6.2% for the GOP primary sample. PPP surveyed 1,676 likely 2010 West Virginia voters, including 521 typical Republican primary voters, from October 30th to 31st, for a +/- 2.4% margin of error for the entire sample, and +/- 4.3% for the GOP primary sample. PPP surveyed 1,372 likely 2010 Wisconsin voters, including 579 typical Republican primary voters, from October 26th to 28th, for a +/- 2.6% margin of error for the entire sample, and +/- 4.1% for the GOP primary sample. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Florida Survey Results:
Q1 Generally speaking if there was an election
today would you vote to reelect Barack Obama
or would you vote for his Republican
opponent?
Barack Obama …… 40%
Republican
opponent ……………54%
Undecided…………. 5%
Q2 Generally speaking, do you vote in Democratic
or Republican primaries, or do you not usually
vote in primaries?
Democratic
primaries ……………40%
Republican
primaries ……………43%
Don’t usually vote
in primaries…………16%
Q3 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mike
Pence, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels……… 1%
Newt Gingrich ……. 15%
Mike Huckabee ….. 15%
Sarah Palin ……….. 22%
Tim Pawlenty……… 4%
Mike Pence ……….. 2%
Mitt Romney………. 28%
John Thune ……….. 1%
Someone
else/Undecided …..12%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q5 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 41%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 42%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%
Q8 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 14%
White …………………………………………………….. 68%
African-American …………………………………….. 14%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%
Maine Survey Results:
Q1 Generally speaking if there was an election
today would you vote to reelect Barack Obama
or would you vote for his Republican
opponent?
Barack Obama …… 44%
Republican
opponent ……………50%
Undecided…………. 7%
Q2 Generally speaking, do you vote in Democratic
or Republican primaries, or do you not usually
vote in primaries?
Democratic
primaries ……………35%
Republican
primaries ……………40%
Don’t usually vote
in primaries…………25%
Q3 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mike
Pence, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels……… 1%
Newt Gingrich ……. 14%
Mike Huckabee ….. 16%
Sarah Palin ……….. 23%
Tim Pawlenty……… 3%
Mike Pence ……….. 2%
Mitt Romney………. 18%
John Thune ……….. 0%
Someone
else/Undecided …..23%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q5 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 43%
Conservative…………………………………………… 36%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 28%
Q8 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Minnesota Survey Results:
Q1 Generally speaking if there was an election
today would you vote to reelect Barack Obama
or would you vote for his Republican
opponent?
Barack Obama …… 45%
Republican
opponent ……………47%
Undecided…………. 8%
Q2 Generally speaking, do you vote in Democratic
or Republican primaries, or do you not usually
vote in primaries?
Democratic
primaries ……………38%
Republican
primaries ……………28%
Don’t usually vote
in primaries…………34%
Q3 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mike
Pence, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels……… 3%
Newt Gingrich ……. 11%
Mike Huckabee ….. 14%
Sarah Palin ……….. 18%
Tim Pawlenty……… 19%
Mike Pence ……….. 3%
Mitt Romney………. 11%
John Thune ……….. 2%
Someone
else/Undecided …..18%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q5 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 43%
Conservative…………………………………………… 37%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q8 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Texas Survey Results:
Q1 Generally speaking if there was an election
today would you vote to reelect Barack Obama
or would you vote for his Republican
opponent?
Barack Obama …… 35%
Republican
opponent ……………59%
Undecided…………. 6%
Q2 Generally speaking, do you vote in Democratic
or Republican primaries, or do you not usually
vote in primaries?
Democratic
primaries ……………35%
Republican
primaries ……………52%
Don’t usually vote
in primaries…………13%
Q3 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mike
Pence, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels……… 2%
Newt Gingrich ……. 15%
Mike Huckabee ….. 20%
Sarah Palin ……….. 22%
Tim Pawlenty……… 3%
Mike Pence ……….. 3%
Mitt Romney………. 15%
John Thune ……….. 1%
Someone
else/Undecided …..20%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 54%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q5 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 12%
Moderate………………………………………………… 38%
Conservative…………………………………………… 50%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 31%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%
Q8 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 20%
White …………………………………………………….. 66%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
West Virginia Survey Results:
Q1 Generally speaking if there was an election
today would you vote to reelect Barack Obama
or would you vote for his Republican
opponent?
Barack Obama …… 34%
Republican
opponent ……………56%
Undecided…………. 9%
Q2 Generally speaking, do you vote in Democratic
or Republican primaries, or do you not usually
vote in primaries?
Democratic
primaries ……………59%
Republican
primaries ……………34%
Don’t usually vote
in primaries…………6%
Q3 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mike
Pence, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels……… 1%
Newt Gingrich ……. 15%
Mike Huckabee ….. 22%
Sarah Palin ……….. 25%
Tim Pawlenty……… 2%
Mike Pence ……….. 2%
Mitt Romney………. 15%
John Thune ……….. 1%
Someone
else/Undecided …..17%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 52%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q5 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 43%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 55%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 11%
Q8 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2,
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Wisconsin Survey Results:
Q1 Generally speaking if there was an election
today would you vote to reelect Barack Obama
or would you vote for his Republican
opponent?
Barack Obama …… 42%
Republican
opponent ……………51%
Undecided…………. 7%
Q2 Generally speaking, do you vote in Democratic
or Republican primaries, or do you not usually
vote in primaries?
Democratic
primaries ……………38%
Republican
primaries ……………46%
Don’t usually vote
in primaries…………15%
Q3 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mike
Pence, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels……… 2%
Newt Gingrich ……. 14%
Mike Huckabee ….. 15%
Sarah Palin ……….. 18%
Tim Pawlenty……… 8%
Mike Pence ……….. 2%
Mitt Romney………. 12%
John Thune ……….. 1%
Someone
else/Undecided …..28%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q5 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 40%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 37%
Q8 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
African-American …………………………………….. 6%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
