Raleigh, N.C. – With Joe Manchin resorting to shooting the cap-and-trade bill in his infamous campaign ad last fall, it will probably come as no shock that President Obama is not the most popular person in West Virginia, despite its Democratic leanings. The state still gives him one of his worst approval ratings anywhere in the country, even with a less conservative electorate than November 2010’s. But except against Mike Huckabee, who is quite popular here, the president does no worse against his prospective 2012 GOP opponents than he did against John McCain in 2008, when he lost by 13 points. Indeed, the Mountain State joins the list with Texas and others of foregone red states that suddenly and shockingly become competitive with a Sarah Palin nomination.
Huckabee leads the president by a whopping 54-36 margin. Mitt Romney holds a 50-37 advantage, and Newt Gingrich a 49-39 edge. But Palin tops Obama only 46-42.
The Republicans dominate here because they are taking more Democratic voters from Obama than he is Republicans from them by anywhere from 2:1 (Palin) to 5:1 (Huckabee) margins. In a state with a 57-32 Democratic registration advantage, that level of crossover support is necessary, along with their 23-point (Palin) to 41-point (Huckabee and Romney) leads with the small group of independents. Obama runs stronger with Democrats, Republicans, and independents against Palin than versus the others, and he holds her to only 75% of the GOP, when the others take 81-86% of their party.
The president still has only a 34-58 approval rating here, with only Wyoming, Kentucky, and Louisiana viewing him worse of the 39 states in which PPP has measured him since early 2010. With a 48-27 favorability rating, Huckabee is by far the best liked of the five, mostly because almost as many Democrats (31%) like him as dislike him (37%). Romney posts a 34-37. Even Palin is not close to as disliked as she is in most states, with a 41-47. While Palin usually brings up the rear, Gingrich does here, at 33-43.
“Democrats may return to their former winning ways at the Presidential level in West Virginia some day,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it’s not likely to happen while Barack Obama is in the picture.”
PPP surveyed 1,105 West Virginia voters from January 20th to 23rd. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 34%
Disapprove………… 58%
Not sure ……………. 8%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………. 48%
Unfavorable ………… 27%
Not sure ……………… 25%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 39%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 36%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 54%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 37%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 40%
Conservative…………………………………………… 45%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 57%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 10%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
