Raleigh, N.C. – The race in Missouri between President Obama and John McCain in 2008 was the closest in the country, with McCain prevailing by less than 1%. But PPP’s first look ahead to the President’s 2012 re-election bid in the Show-Me State shows him he has a tougher road to climb this time, down by as many as seven points against the four current frontrunners for the Republican nomination.
Neighboring Arkansas’ former governor Mike Huckabee would be the strongest challenger if the GOP wants to retain the state’s 11 electoral votes, leading Obama 49-42. Mitt Romney would do just as well, up 47-41. Newt Gingrich would only narrowly prevail, 45-44, while the president would actually beat Sarah Palin, 46-43.
Despite being the best known overall and the second best liked with Republicans, 16% of Republicans are undecided when Palin is matched with Obama, higher than for any of the others. She is also the only one who trails with independents, 40-45, with Huckabee and Romney best at 49-37 and 47-35, respectively. Palin also gives Obama his highest level of GOP support, at 8%, versus 5% or 6% against the others. The president holds his own base remarkably well, getting 86-88% of them regardless of the opponent, while the Republicans vary from 76% (Palin) to 89% (Huckabee) of the GOP.
Huckabee is by far the best liked of the four Republicans, with a 51-29 favorability rating to Romney’s 30-42, Gingrich’s 33-48, and Palin’s 39-53. Huckabee performs better across the board. 25% of Democrats like him, with Romney’s 13% a distant second across the aisle. He also has a 46-27 mark with independents, with Romney’s 26-39 way behind. Romney’s problem is Republicans, who give him only a 49-24, last by far, with Huckabee’s 79-11 the best grade with the GOP.
“These results continue the trend seen nationally and in North Carolina, Virginia, and Montana: Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are right now the president’s strongest potential opponents, with Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich placing no better or even sometimes far worse than John McCain did in Obama’s decisive 2008 victory,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 515 Missouri voters from November 29th to December 1st. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q6 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 39%
Conservative…………………………………………… 44%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 26%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 31%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 34%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
