Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama won Virginia by six points in 2008, and if he were up against his almost-certain 2012 opponent Mitt Romney today, he would win it again by a similar margin. If Romney hopes to close that gap, the state’s governor Bob McDonnell would not help, and there is no question that one potential running mate would hurt: Eric Cantor. The Constitution Party candidacy of the state’s former congressman Virgil Goode could also draw votes away from Romney, to Obama’s advantage.
Obama tops Romney by eight points, 51-43, up from a six-point (48-42) lead when PPP last polled the state last Demember. These results come among an electorate that reports voting for Obama by only four points over John McCain four years ago.
Democrats favor Obama, 92-4, up from 88-9 when the last survey. Romney is also consolidating support with Republicans as he wraps up the nomination, but still has work to do on that front—he leads within his party by an 84-9 spread, up from 79-8. Romney also has a slim lead with independents, 46-44; they make up a pretty sizeable 29% of the electorate.
McDonnell is a somewhat popular governor, with 46% approving and 36% disapproving of his job performance. But his presence on the ticket would only help Romney tread water at a 51-43 disadvantage. Cantor, on the other hand, is unpopular. 27% see him favorably and 41% unfavorably statewide, and he would boost Obama’s standing by four points (52-40). Obama would also lead Romney by twelve points if Goode makes the ballot in the state. Goode would pull 5% to Obama’s 50% and Romney’s 38%.
“We have polled Virginia six times this election cycle and have found Barack Obama with a decent sized lead over Mitt Romney every single time,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Barring a big shift in the political climate Virginia is likely to go for Obama again, and that’s going to make it very hard for Romney to score a victory in the electoral college.”
PPP surveyed 680 Virginia voters from April 26th to 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Virgil Goode?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q9 If the candidates for President this fall were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Constitution Party candidate
Virgil Goode, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 38%
Virgil Goode ……………………………………………. 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bob
McDonnell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q11 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Bob McDonnell for Vice
President, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 51%
Romney-McDonnell …………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Eric Cantor?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q13 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Eric Cantor for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 52%
Romney-Cantor ………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 19%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 29%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
