Raleigh, N.C. – Things continue to look bright for President Obama holding onto Virginia next year. He leads unlikely candidate but potential running mate selection Governor Bob McDonnell, 51-43, and Mike Huckabee 52-43, almost identical to his 51-43 advantage over Huckabee in PPP’s previous poll of the state in February. The president also tops Mitt Romney, 51-40 (up from 48-42); Sarah Palin, 55-40 (down from 54-35); Newt Gingrich, 54-37 (up from 51-39); and Donald Trump, 54-32. The president has a 51-44 approval-disapproval spread, up from 48-45 three months ago.
With a 50-35 job performance rating, McDonnell is one of the most popular governors in the country. But he only comes a hair closer to beating Obama in his own state than does Huckabee. Just a fifth of voters want McDonnell to make a bid, while 59% do not. Even Republicans split 35-30 against it.
Democrats are unusually united in their backing of the president at this stage. He earns 93-97% of his party’s vote, with only a handful undecided or going to the Republican candidate. In February, he was already strong, but getting only 89-92% of Democrats, about how he performed against McCain, according to exit polls. This unanimity is particularly unusual in a Southern state where many rural white Democrats are more conservative than the typical Democrat in other parts of the country. The president’s support with his party goes beyond his strength with minorities and the growing D.C. suburbs. He has declined with white voters in many states, but in every matchup here, he improves with these voters over his performance against McCain. And while he split independents with McCain, he leads this crop of candidates by five (against McDonnell) to 23 points (versus Trump).
“We’ve polled Virginia three times over the last six months and have found Barack Obama in a very strong position every time,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It’s going to be a big challenge for Republicans to win this state back.”
PPP surveyed 547 Virginia voters from May 5th to 8th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 69%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bob
McDonnell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Bob
McDonnell, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Bob McDonnell ……………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q14 Do you want Bob McDonnell to run for
President next year?
Yes………………………………………………………… 20%
No …………………………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q15 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%
Q19 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African-American …………………………………….. 19%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
