Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama beat John McCain by 14 points in the Badger State two years ago, but in a look ahead to 2012, he now matches that margin against only McCain’s running mate, Sarah Palin. Another candidate comes as close as four points, making the state look more like it did in 2004, when John Kerry barely beat out George W. Bush. Obama does best, as usual, against Palin, topping her, 52-38, but that narrows to only a 46-42 advantage over Mitt Romney. Intervening are Mike Huckabee’s 41-47 deficit and Newt Gingrich’s 41-50.
Except for Palin, each of the Republicans does almost as good a job at locking up the GOP base as Obama does at unifying Democrats. In fact, Romney holds 89% of the GOP to Obama’s 87% of Democrats. But Palin musters only 80% to the president’s 93%. The three non-Palin contenders, even Gingrich, also take more Democrats away from the president than he does Republicans from them—Romney best with 7% of the opposite party to Obama’s 2% of Republicans. So the president’s leads are largely explained by his seven- to 20-point advantages with independents, who make up a third of the electorate in Wisconsin, a larger share than in most states. Romney does best with unaffiliateds, lagging only 36-43, followed by Huckabee’s 37-46.
Without the pro-Republican enthusiasm gap, the president’s approval rating has rebounded from a dismal 37-54 before the election to a decent 47-46 now, a turnaround of 18 points. In the wider electorate, none of his Republican opponents manages even close to a positive favorability rating. Romney does best with a 33-45 margin, followed by Huckabee’s 32-45, Palin’s 35-58, and Gingrich’s 28-54. So it is no surprise that the president bests each of them head-to-head. The results here are another reinforcement of Palin’s electability problem with her own base: of the four, she does by far the best with Republicans personally, but the worst against Obama. They love her, but many are not willing to vote for her, even against someone they hate as much as the president.
“Wisconsin is one state where Barack Obama is clearly weaker than he was in 2008 even when you move out of the 2010 electorate,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “With voters split evenly on his job performance he could be in trouble in the state, but for now he benefits from a weak GOP field.”
PPP surveyed 702 Wisconsin voters from December 10th to 12th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q6 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 40%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
African-American …………………………………….. 6%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 5%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 18%
