Raleigh, N.C. – Republican presidential candidates have perennially contested Pennsylvania in recent years, and the results are usually close, but they have not succeeded in actually winning the state since 1988. President Obama defeated John McCain there by ten points. But while he currently leads all five possible contenders tested against him for 2012, including a native, two of them come significantly closer to making it the close battle it was in 2000 and 2004.
Obama bests Sarah Palin, 51-36; Newt Gingrich, 50-40; and former Senator Rick Santorum, 48-40. But Mitt Romney lags only 42-46, and Mike Huckabee only 44-47.
Except Huckabee, who the president beats by 12 points with independents, the others trail with this group by 18 or 20 points. But unaffiliated voters make up only 9% of the electorate, so the real difference comes in how much support the candidates get from the two parties. The starkest gulf in party unity comes when voters are given the choice between Obama and Palin—83% of Democrats surge toward the president, and only 64% of Republicans pledge for Palin. Obama earns seven points more of his base’s votes than each Gingrich and Santorum do theirs. Huckabee and Romney trail by low single digits overall because they both get a little less than 80% of Republicans and hold Obama to a similar share of Democrats.
Defeated for re-election in 2006, Santorum has not regained much personal favor in the intervening years, and his weakness in his crucial swing-state home base gives him a weak argument for the GOP’s nomination. At 38-44, he still has a significantly better favorability rating than either Palin (34-59) or Gingrich (29-53), but comes out slightly worse than Romney (34-38) and Huckabee (39-36). Obama’s approval rating is still in negative territory at 46-49, but that is an improvement on the 40-54 he earned with the more Republican-heavy electorate just before last year’s election.
“It’s becoming a broken record in the swing states,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Pennsylvania voters aren’t enamored with Barack Obama but the weakness of the Republican candidate field has him leading all of his potential opponents anyway.”
PPP surveyed 547 Pennsylvania voters from January 3rd to 5th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 45%
Conservative…………………………………………… 39%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 9%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
