Polls

Obama tops all Republicans but Huckabee in N.C.

| Tom Jensen

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SUMMARY OF RESULTS

  President_Graph Raleigh, N.C. – Last month, PPP showed Obama surprisingly strong in North Carolina, a state he narrowly won for the Democratic Party for the first time in 32 years. A month later, things have little changed, but the picture has improved slightly for the president against all four of the GOP’s leading candidates. Mike Huckabee is still the only candidate to best him in the state, but while he tied Mitt Romney in November, he barely edges him out now. Obama’s lead against Sarah Palin has widened from five to 14 points, the only shift outside the margin of error.

A month ago, Huckabee topped Obama, 48-44, but that lead is now only 46-45. Romney and Obama were tied at 44% apiece, but the president now prevails, 46-43. Newt Gingrich was down only 45-46, but now lags, 43-48. Palin, however, has gone from a statistical tie, 43-48, to falling behind 38-52, the same deficit she posts in PPP’s release today from swing-state Florida.

The Republicans’ favorability ratings and the president’s job approval margin have barely moved since the previous poll, but the internals within the individual matchups have. Obama has slightly upped his support from his own base, while the Republicans have slightly declined with the GOP. The biggest difference, though, is that Obama has dramatically reversed the advantages three of the Republicans had with independents. All of the Republicans, even Palin, are still taking more Democratic support than the president is Republican votes, but he makes up for that by turning a 37-50 deficit to Romney with unaffiliateds into a 44-37 lead; a 42-46 against Palin to a 51-33; and a 39- 44 against Gingrich to a 41-38. Only against Huckabee have independents not moved, with Obama still down, 37-47.

“North Carolina continues to look like a state where Barack Obama has at least a 50/50 chance of repeating his surprising victory from 2008,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Who the Republicans nominate will be key here given the vast difference between how Obama polls against Huckabee and Palin.”


PPP surveyed 520 North Carolina voters from December 17th to 19th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or (919) 880-4888.
Quesitons about the poll? Contact Tom Jensen at (919) 774-6312 


North Carolina Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure…………………………………………………. 4%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Newt Gingrich?

Favorable ……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mike Huckabee?

Favorable ……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin?

Favorable ……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?

Favorable ……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure ………………………………………………….27%

Q6 If the candidates for President in 2012 were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama ………………………………………… 48%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 42% Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q7 If the candidates for President in 2012 were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama…………………………………………45%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q8 If the candidates for President in 2012 were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama…………………………………………52%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q9 If the candidates for President in 2012 were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama…………………………………………46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Republican Senator Richard Burr’s job performance?

Approve …………………………………………………. 36% Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%

Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Democratic Senator Kay Hagan’s job performance?

Approve ………………36%
Disapprove…………..43% 
Not sure ………………21% 

Q12 Do you support or oppose the tax deal President Obama made with Congressional Republicans last week?

Support ………………………………………………….. 51%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q13 Do you think President Obama made too many concessions to Republicans with his tax deal last week, not enough concessions to Republicans, or about the right amount of concessions to Republicans?

Too many concessions …………………………….. 26%
Not enough concessions…………………………… 36%
About the right amount of concessions ……….. 32%
Not sure…………………………………………………. 6%

Q14 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?

Liberal ……………………………………………………. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 40%
Conservative …………………………………………… 43%

Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman ………………………………………………….. 55
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%

Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican ……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other …………………………………… 21%

Q17 If you are white, press 1. If African-American, press 2. If other, press 3.

White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 23%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4.

18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65 ………………………………………….. 20%

 


Full results (including crossover tabs) and press release: PPP_Release_National_1129.pdf


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