Polls

Obama ties Romney, leads others by double digits in Nevada

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results

President_Graph Raleigh, N.C. – Mitt Romney’s argument for being the candidate who can best put President Obama on defense gets another boost with PPP’s results today from Nevada, which show that Romney is the only candidate with a single-digit deficit against Obama.  Romney won the 2008 Republican caucus in Nevada, and has a strong base of support from native Mormons.  He trails Obama by a single point in an early general-election match-up for 2012, while the other candidates lag by as much as 13 in a state Obama turned blue by 12 points just over two years ago.

The president just edges out Romney, 47-46.  But he leads 51-41 against Mike Huckabee, 51-40 against Newt Gingrich, and 52-39 against Sarah Palin—similar to the 2008 results.  The difference?  Against the other three, Obama takes slightly more Republicans than they do Democrats, and holds significantly stronger numbers within his own party than they do with the GOP.  He also beats them by a whopping 22 to 27 points with independents.  But Romney turns that around, leading the president 52-41 with unaffiliated voters, matching his 78% base support, and taking 16% of Democrats to his 13% of Republicans.

Unlike in most states, where he suffers with the GOP base personally, Romney is best liked by his own party members in the Silver State, just narrowly ahead of Huckabee’s standing with them.  Either Huckabee or Palin usually do best with Republicans.  All four are liked by at least two-thirds of them here.  The real difference comes with everyone else.  Democrats strongly despise Palin and Gingrich, and Romney and Huckabee are still persona non grata, but much less disliked by the opposite party than the other two.  Romney, at 58-28, is by far the best liked by independents; in fact, the other three are all disliked by 12-point (Huckabee) to 39-point (Gingrich) margins.  The president has majority approval here, unlike in many swing states, with 50% approving and 46% disapproving. That is in stark contrast to his 41-56 margin with the more conservative electorate before last November’s election.

“The story in Nevada right now is pretty simple,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If the Republicans nominate Mitt Romney it’s a toss up and if they don’t Obama wins the state easily again like he did in 2008.”

PPP surveyed 932 Nevada voters from January 3rd to 5th.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.2%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q10 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 45%
Conservative…………………………………………… 38%

Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%

Q13 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 14%
White …………………………………………………….. 71%
African-American …………………………………….. 8%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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