Raleigh, N.C. – Most Americans do not think their fellow citizens will re-elect President Obama next year, but they still plan to vote for him over all but one of his potential opponents all the same. That is because the GOP field is no more popular as a whole—and most of them individually less so—than he is.
47% of Americans think Obama will not get another four years, and 43% think he will. Independents are bearish on his chances by the same four-point margin, and way more Republicans are convinced Obama will lose (84%) than Democrats that he will win (71%). Yet voters still give the president leads over all the hopefuls but Mitt Romney, who he ties at 45%. He tops new frontrunner Herman Cain, 48-42; Ron Paul, 47-39; Rick Perry, 49-40; Newt Gingrich, 50-39; and Michele Bachmann, 50-38. Obama’s margins have declined since last month, when he led Romney 49-45, Perry 52-41, Gingrich 53-41, and Bachmann 53-39. Cain and Paul were not tested then.
45% approve and 51% approve of the president’s job performance. But only 37% have a favorable opinion of the Republican lineup, and 46% an unfavorable one. More Republicans see their candidates in a negative light (12%) than Democrats in a positive one (9%), and independents frown on the bunch by a 33-48 margin. Independents (43-51) see the president better than his aspiring replacements, but the gap between disapproving partymates (18%) and approving aisle-crossers (8%) is even greater. Cain is the only of the GOP bunch seen positively, and barely, 37-36. Romney’s favorability spread matches the president, 37-43, but the others are all massively disliked, and most even more so than last month. Gingrich is next most “popular” at 30-56, up just slightly from 28-57; then Bachmann at 27-56 (30-53); Paul at 21-55; and Perry at 23-57 (30-50).
“The electability gap in the Republican field has widened,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Mitt Romney would make it a toss up but any other candidate would start out well behind Barack Obama.”
PPP surveyed 700 American voters from October 7th to 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republican candidate field for President?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q15 Do you think Barack Obama will be reelected
for a second term as President or not?
He will ……………………………………………………. 43%
He will not ………………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%
Q19 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 8%
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
