Raleigh, N.C. – Tennessee was a rare state where Barack Obama performed worse in 2008 than John Kerry did in 2004, albeit by less than one point on the margin. But the state now joins red-turned-blue neighbors North Carolina and Virginia as states where Obama has actually improved since the last election. While he lost to John McCain by 15 points last time, he now trails next year’s crop of Republican frontrunners by no more than 12.
Neighboring Arkansas’ Mike Huckabee typically does best against the president in Southern states, and he comes closest to matching McCain’s margin of victory here, 53-41. The other candidate who usually runs closest to Obama, Mitt Romney, beats him here, 48-41. But neighboring Georgia’s Newt Gingrich can manage only a 46-43 lead, and Sarah Palin actually ties the president at 45%.
President Obama’s 42-52 approval rating puts his standing here near the bottom third of the 42 states in which PPP has measured him in the last year. But except Huckabee, none of the Republicans is seen a whole lot better. The former Arkansas governor has a pretty outstanding 50-29 favorability margin because he is liked the best across the partisan spectrum. All the others are seen negatively by both independents and all voters.
Not surprisingly then, Huckabee is the only candidate who soundly beats the president with independents, 51-40. Romney manages an inconsequential 43-42 lead, but against Gingrich, Obama wins, 43-35, and he prevails 49-38 against Palin.
The secret to these candidates maintaining at least a tie against the president overall is that they all capitalize on the 43-37 Republican turnout advantage by pulling more Democratic voters from Obama than he does Republicans from them. Palin and Gingrich only barely do so, hence their razor-thin horserace results. But Huckabee takes 13% and Romney 12% of Obama’s partisans while each losing only 4% the other way. Also, while a good chunk of Republicans are on the fence about whether to support Palin, Romney, or Gingrich, Huckabee locks up 90% of the GOP versus the others’ 80-84%. Obama himself maintains 83-88% of Democrats’ votes, and few Democrats are undecided.
“Tennessee is further proof that a Sarah Palin nomination would lead to an Obama landslide, but otherwise, the state should stay in the GOP’s hands,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 500 Tennessee voters from February 9th to 13th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 53%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bill
Haslam’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Lamar Alexander’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Frist?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 25%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 80%
African-American …………………………………….. 16%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%
