Raleigh, N.C. – As part of their nationwide rejuvenation, President Obama is now competitive in his 2008 opponent’s home state, and Rick Santorum performs better against the president than does Mitt Romney. Obama and Romney are tied at 47% in Arizona, while Santorum leads the president, 47-46.
Romney led the president by seven points (49-42) when PPP last polled the state in November. His personal image continues to take a hit as the primary battle wages on. 56% of Arizonans see him unfavorably and only 35% favorably; previously, it was 51-38. Santorum was not tested then, but he stands at 39-52 now.
Meanwhile, the president’s net approval rating is up seven points from just three months ago. Then, only 41% approved and 54% disapproved, but he now stands at 46-52. That still puts him in worse shape than in most of the other states he wants to win, but it is a strong showing in a traditionally red state. The only red-leaning swing state where he does better is Missouri, and by only one point.
Obama is up 27 points with independents, from 35-57 to 51-46, and has also improved with his own party, from 74-22 to 87-12. That is reflected in the match-up with Romney; where he trailed with independents by a 47-36 spread in November, he now leads 52-38. And where he led only 79-16 with Democrats, that is now 87-11. He also holds Romney to only a 77-16 lead with the GOP, versus 80-11 last time.
Obama has improved four points over less likely nominee Newt Gingrich, from a 45-all tie to a 48-44 lead, and by five points over Ron Paul, from a 43-44 deficit to a 46-42 lead. John McCain won his own state by eight-and-a-half points four years ago.
“Arizona looks like it could be competitive this fall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That’s another data point showing Obama’s in the strongest position he’s found himself for a very long time.”
PPP surveyed 743 Arizona voters from February 17th to 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 65%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q8 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q9 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 50%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 31%
Republican……………………………………………… 46%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q14 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 15%
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 29%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
