Raleigh, N.C. – Some have suggested that with an unpopular president with a dissatisfied base and weak economy, and with a Republican nominee who either cannot win the middle or is not conservative enough for the right, there is room for a strong third-party bid for the first time in at least 16 years. But evidently the chances of defection by GOP-inclined voters are stronger than cracks in the Democrats’ armor, according to PPP’s latest national poll. Despite their grumbling, Democrats remain united behind Obama, and six of the seven possible independents PPP tested against him and his strongest GOP challenger, Mitt Romney, would hurt Romney more than the president.
Head-to-head, Romney and Obama are tied at 45% in the national popular vote, per Tuesday’s release. Against New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, the major-party candidates are knotted at 42%, with Bloomberg at 10%. With a challenge from his left by either Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders or perpetual Democratic thorn Ralph Nader, Obama would remain at 45%, with Romney falling to 41% and Nader getting 7% and Sanders only 5%. If Jon Huntsman takes his iconoclasm to the general, he would earn 7%, with Obama prevailing, 46-40. Ron Paul would get a solid 15%, with Romney falling to 33% and Obama still at 45%. Donald Trump would pull 18% to Romney’s 30% and Obama’s 46%. But Romney’s biggest obstacle could come from Sarah Palin, who would get 21% to his 26%, with Obama jumping to 47%.
Obama would still win independents by six to 25 points. The independent candidates only earn 4-9% of Democrats, but Romney wins the GOP vote only 46-41 over Palin and 63-22 over Paul, who attracts the most independent support of the third-partiers (20%).
“Obama has a more solid base of support than any of the Republican contenders do at this point,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “So if there was a third party candidate, regardless of their ideology, that person would probably be splitting the anti-Obama vote with the GOP candidate.”
PPP surveyed 700 American voters from August 18th to 21st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michael Bloomberg?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ralph Nader?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bernie Sanders?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Michael Bloomberg running as
an independent, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Michael Bloomberg ………………………………….. 10%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Jon Huntsman running as an
independent, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 40%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Ralph Nader running as an
independent, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Ralph Nader……………………………………………. 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Sarah Palin running as an
independent, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 26%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 21%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Ron Paul running as an
independent, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 33%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 15%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Bernie Sanders running as an
independent, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Bernie Sanders ……………………………………….. 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q14 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Donald Trump running as an
independent, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 30%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 18%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q15 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q19 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
