Polls

Obama still up a hair in Florida

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C.–
PPP’s newest Florida poll, conducted
completely after the Republican convention, finds no change in the Presidential
race there. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 48-47, exactly as he did on our last
poll of the state five weeks ago.

The Republican convention being held in Tampa appears to have been a wash.
33% of voters say it made them more likely to vote for Republicans, 33% said it
made them less likely to vote for Republicans, and 34% said it didn’t make a
difference to them either way.

Romney did see a slight bump in his favorability numbers. 49% of voters have
a positive opinion of him to 47% with a negative one. That +2 spread is up a
net 5 points from late July when his breakdown was 46/49.

The rest of the speakers at the convention seem to have been more of a hit
with voters. Condoleezza Rice’s numbers in particular stand out. 66% of voters
see her favorably to 22% with a negative opinion. That’s up a net 13 points
from our last poll when she was already pretty darn popular at 59/28. Even with
Democrats Rice comes in at 47/36. Another star from the convention is Ann
Romney. 56% of voters give her good marks to 22% with an unfavorable opinion
and she comes close to breaking even with Democrats at 32/39.

The biggest winner of the convention on the Republican side may have been
Marco Rubio. He now has a 51% approval rating with 33% of voters disapproving
of him. Those are the best numbers PPP has found for him since he took office.
He is pretty universally beloved by GOP voters at 85/11 and even with Democrats
he has a 26% approval rating, more crossover support than we usually find for
folks these days.

“Mitt Romney received no bounce from the Republican convention in Florida,”
said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The other speakers
appear to have made more of a positive impression on voters than he did
himself. To some extent he was overshadowed at his own convention.”

PPP surveyed 1,548 likely Florida voters from August
31st to September 2nd . The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.5%.
This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political
organization.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Marco Rubio’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .51%
Disapprove…………. .33%
Not sure …………….. .15%

Q5 Did the Republican convention make you more
or less likely to vote for Republicans this year,
or did it not make a difference?
More likely………….. .33%
Less likely ………….. .33%
Didn’t make a
difference …………….34%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ann Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Condoleezza Rice?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Susana Martinez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the speech Clint Eastwood gave at the
Republican convention?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Clint Eastwood in general?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 72%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q13 Who do you think gives better speeches:
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 58%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q14 Do you support or oppose Paul Ryan’s
proposal for reforming Medicare?
Support ………………………………………………….. 37%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q15 Do you think Mitt Romney should release his
tax returns for the last 12 years, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 49%
He should not………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 36%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 13%

Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%

Q19 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 13%
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 29%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 33%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%

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