Raleigh, N.C. – New Jersey has been a bit of a tease for Republicans at the presidential level. In the wake of 9/11, George W. Bush’s campaign played there at the last minute in 2004, only to lose by six points on Election Day. The GOP may have sensed renewed hope with the election of Chris Christie, but his popularity has sunk, and if he were to run, he would do worse in his home state against President Obama than would national frontrunner Mitt Romney. In fact, none of the contenders would come closer than John McCain did to winning the state except Romney, and Romney only barely.
Romney’s 14-point deficit, 53-39, is only a hair less than McCain’s 15-point loss. Christie falls behind, 56-39; Michele Bachmann, 55-35; Tim Pawlenty, 54-32; Herman Cain, 55-29; and Sarah Palin, 59-33. Romney (52-37), Palin (59-29), and Christie (55-38) trailed by similar margins when PPP last took a look at the race in early January. The President wins the independent vote against everyone but Romney (trailing only 44-45), and wins considerably more support from the opposite party than the Republicans do.
Obama’s approval rating in the Garden State has essentially not changed in the last seven months, now at 52%, with 43% disapproving (51-43 then), still his seventh or eighth best showing in the country. That is basically the reverse of Christie’s 43-53 spread, which is itself an improvement on all his other partymates, with Romney at a 36-47 favorability margin, Cain a 20-33, Bachmann a 32-50, Pawlenty a 20-44, and Palin a 31-65.
“Barack Obama’s struggling in the polls right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But he’s not struggling so much that he needs to worry about losing New Jersey.”
PPP will release Republican Presidential primary numbers for New Jersey in the next few days.
PPP surveyed 480 New Jersey voters from July 15th to 18th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Toplines are below. Complete results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 52%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 65%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Chris Christie’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 59%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Chris Christie, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 56%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 39%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 36%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 12%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
Other……………………………………………………… 30%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 49%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 14%
