Raleigh, N.C. – New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has been getting a lot of press for his no-nonsense style in taking on political opponents and his state’s budget woes since taking office almost a year ago. But the Democratic lean of the Garden State means his admirers are probably more numerous outside its borders than within. In this climate, his 48-45 job approval margin puts him above the median of American governors, but he is still not as popular as President Obama in the state. New Jersey voters give him a 51-43 approval rating, good for fourth of the 37 states in which PPP has measured opinion on his job performance in the last year.
Christie has also been getting a lot of ink as a potential contender for president in the GOP’s wide-open race to challenge the president for re-election next year, despite his own denials of interest. If he were to win the nomination, however, he would do no better in his own state than would three of the frontrunners PPP typically tests against Obama across the country.
The president would easily retain New Jersey’s 14 electoral votes against any comer, defeating Christie, 55-38; Newt Gingrich, 54-37; Mike Huckabee, 53-36; Mitt Romney, 52-37; and Sarah Palin by a whopping 59-29. Except the latter, these are all roughly similar results as Obama’s 57-42 win over Palin’s ticket-mate John McCain in 2008. Palin’s 27-65 favorability margin makes her by far the least popular of the Republicans, but Gingrich (29-49), Hucakbee (32-41), and Romney (35-41) are all well under water.
The major reason for Obama’s dominance, as in most Northeastern and Western states, is that the overwhelming plurality (43%) of the state’s voters are Democrats, with only 29% self-identifying with the GOP and a pretty high 27% claiming to be independents. Obama only ties or narrowly leads with independents against everyone but Palin (who trails 32-53). But he does a better job of locking up his own base than they do, and takes one-and-a-half to almost four times as many Republicans as they do Democrats.
“Chris Christie’s approval numbers are good for a Republican in a dark blue state,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But that doesn’t mean folks are ready to put him in the White House.”
PPP surveyed 520 New Jersey voters from January 6th to 9th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 65%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Chris Christie’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 59%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Chris Christie, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 48%
Conservative…………………………………………… 34%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 69%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
