Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama is slipping even in perhaps the bluest state in the country, but it is so blue that he still leads all but the Bay State’s former governor Mitt Romney by similar margins to his 26-point victory over John McCain in 2008.
When PPP last polled Massachusetts in June, Obama led Romney by 20 points, but that is down to 13 now, at 53-40. However, against the GOP frontrunner, Rick Perry, Obama leads by 26 (58-32). Ron Paul actually does a point better, trailing by 25 (55-30). Newt Gingrich is down 27 (58-31), and Michele Bachmann by 31 (59-28).
While Obama leads the other Republicans by 12 to 20 points with independents, Romney beats him by four. They are a 45% plurality of the electorate. The other big key is Romney’s crossover support; he poaches 14% of Democrats, while the others can only muster 8-10%. Democrats are 40% of voters. Romney also does by far the best job at locking up the GOP base, with 91% of their vote, versus the 67-77% the others earn.
Each of the Republicans but Romney is seen favorably by only 21% or 22% of voters, with 61% to 67% seeing them unfavorably. Romney, however, stands at 41-53. The president is still better liked, with 49% approving of his performance and 45% disapproving. But that is down drastically from June’s 58-37. His disapproval with Democrats is up to 20% and approval down to 74% because he has slipped with the most liberal voters from 91-8 to 78-19, and with the center-left from 90-7 to 82-11, and with the plurality moderates from 55-34 to 43-50. Together, these groups make up 73% of the state’s electorate.
“Barack Obama doesn’t need to worry about losing Massachusetts even if he draws Mitt Romney,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the fact that his approval is below 50% there in one of the bluest states in the country is pretty symbolic of his broader issues right now.”
PPP surveyed 791 Massachusetts voters from September 16th to 18th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 67%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 59%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 28%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 58%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 58%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 32%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 58%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 6%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 15%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 45%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 87%
Other……………………………………………………… 13%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
