Raleigh, N.C. – In the last two months, President Obama’s lead in Colorado has been cut almost in half, but he remains a pretty strong favorite to win the state again. Obama tops Mitt Romney by seven points (49-42), down from 13 in early April (53-40). But that was just before Rick Santorum dropped out of the race, leaving Romney as the presumptive nominee. Santorum had beaten Romney in the state’s caucus two months earlier. Now that the nomination is his, Romney has been consolidating his base. His net favorability rating with GOP voters is up 37 points since the previous survey.
But Romney has also been improving with independents, who make up over a quarter of the electorate. That is where he has made up ground head-to-head with Obama, as his share of the Republican vote (84%) is essentially unchanged. What was a 26-point deficit with indepedents in the previous survey is now only 10. Romney’s net favorability with them is up 23 points at the same time as Obama’s net approval rating has decreased 21 points with them.
But the president still leads because he remains a bit more “popular” with nonpartisans; his net -10 approval bests Romney’s -17 favorability. He also is still better liked overall. His 49-48 approval spread is almost identical to his standing in April (50-47). But while Romney’s net favorability is up 17 points, that still leaves him at -12 (40-52).
Obama leads by 27 points with Hispanic voters, up from 15 in the last poll. Some of these interviews were conducted after Obama announced a policy shift on immigrant deportations. This has helped to buffer his nine-point decline with white voters, though unlike in many states, he even leads by two points with them. But as in some other swing states, there is a huge age gap that bodes well for Democrats’ future. Voters under the age of 45 support Obama by 12 points, including 29 points with those under 30, while senior citizens favor Romney by 14.
“Mitt Romney’s looking more competitive in Colorado now than he did a couple months ago but Barack Obama is still the clear favorite there,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 799 Colorado voters from June 14th to 17th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Owens?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q5 If the Democratic ticket this fall was Barack
Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice
President, and the Republican ticket was Mitt
Romney for President and Bill Owens for Vice
President, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 49%
Romney-Owens ………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 41%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 26%
Q12 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 15%
White …………………………………………………….. 77%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%