Raleigh, N.C. – California is the rare state where voters have not soured on President Obama much at all over the course of this year. When PPP last polled the state in late January, 53% of Californians approved of his job performance and 41% disapproved. That has budged little, with 53% still approving, and 43% disapproving. Of the 37 states where PPP has measured his approval this year, only three like him better (Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Vermont). The state has not voted GOP for president since 1988, and Obama won by 24 points in 2008, a larger victory than Ronald Reagan attained in his 1984 landslide. In PPP’s latest poll, only Mitt Romney comes a hair closer.
The president leads Romney by 21 points (57-36), almost unchanged from 56-36 in the previous survey. Obama tops new frontrunner Newt Gingrich by 26 points (60-34), up two from 58-34. The others were not tested last time. Ron Paul trails by 25 points (57-32), and Herman Cain, Rick Perry, and Michele Bachmann each by 29 (61-32, and 60-31 for the latter two).
California voters like this slate of Republicans so little that Obama outperforms his approval marks with Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike. 12% of Republicans approve of Obama, and 11% (against Romney) to 19% (versus Cain) are pledging to vote for him. 14% of Obama’s own party disapproves, but only 5-6% of them defect. Independents disapprove by a four-point margin, but Paul is the only GOP contender to beat the president with independents, and by only one point. The others trail by four (Romney), nine (Cain), 10 (Gingrich), 11 (Bachmann), or 19 (Perry).
Republicans will struggle anywhere Hispanics are a large segment of the electorate (here 22%). 35% of them disapprove of Obama, but only 20-27% are voting Republican.
“California is a pretty blue state, but Obama absolutely dominated here in 2008, and it looks like he will again,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 500 California voters from November 10th to 13th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 53%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 69%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 60%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 61%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 60%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 57%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 60%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 57%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 34%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 58%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 25%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 50%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q18 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If Asian, press 4.
If other, press 5.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 22%
White …………………………………………………….. 58%
African-American …………………………………….. 5%
Asian……………………………………………………… 8%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
