Raleigh, N.C. –Washington is turning increasingly bluer, having not voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1984. George W. Bush lost it by five points in 2000 and seven points in 2004, and President Obama won the state by 17 over John McCain last time. Looking ahead to 2012, Obama looks just about as comfortable, regardless of his opponent. In PPP’s latest poll, Obama leads Mitt Romney, 51-40; Newt Gingrich, 54-36; and Sarah Palin, 57-34. Washington gained an electoral vote after the most recent census, so another win here will offset electoral vote losses in other states Obama is likely to win again.
With a 52-43 job approval spread, the president has almost flipped his numbers from PPP’s final poll before last fall’s election, when he had a 42-53 margin. This 20-point improvement pegs him at his eighth best standing of the 43 states in which PPP has measured him since the beginning of last year.
But that net +9 job performance rating, narrower than any of his leads over the Republicans, suggests that, as in most places, it is not so much his strength as the Republicans’ weakness that keeps him in good shape for winning the state’s 12 electoral votes again. No more than a third like any of the remaining contenders tested, with Romney at a 34-47 favorability spread, Gingrich at 26-59, and Palin at 29-65.
Despite a slightly negative (44-47) mark with independents, the president at worst ties with them (42-42 against Romney) because all of the Republicans are also seen negatively by these voters. He leads Gingrich by 12 and Palin by 18, while locking up 93-95% of Democrats and earning 7-15% of Republican votes.
“Barack Obama would have to see a total collapse in his popularity nationally for Washington to be competitive next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s headed for another double digit win there.”
PPP surveyed 1,098 Washington voters from May 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 52%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 65%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 75%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 57%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 58%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 39%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 87%
Other……………………………………………………… 13%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
