Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama beat John McCain in Minnesota by about 10 points four years ago, and he now leads Mitt Romney by even more.
When PPP last polled the state in January, around when primary voting kicked off and Romney was not the inevitable nominee, Obama already led Romney by an identical margin as in 2008 (51-41). As supporters of the other Republican candidates have come around to accepting Romney, his position has improved a little elsewhere. But not in Minnesota. Romney now trails by 15 points (54-39).
Just as is the case in the shift against the marriage amendment and toward marriage equality, all the movement for Obama has come with independents. Democrats and Republicans are already polarized, with 94% of Democrats pledging for Obama and 88% of Republicans for Romney. But independents have moved from favoring Obama by nine points in January to 23 now.
The reason for that is that while Romney has gotten a little more popular overall, it is all because of Republicans rallying around the flag. But independents dislike him by the same net 30 points as in the last poll. At the same time, they have become more fond of the president, flipping from a net -5 approval spread to +16, moving his overall mark from 49-45 to 52-43. That compares very well to Romney’s 32-54 favorability.
“Minnesota is not going to be a swing state this fall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Barack Obama’s standing is very solid there right now and it was one of Mitt Romney’s weakest states during the GOP primary season.”
And no Minnesotan running mate would help Romney make up much ground. His erstwhile opponent Tim Pawlenty would close the gap to 11 points (52-41), but he is not very popular (37% favorable, 52% unfavorable). Norm Coleman would keep it right at 15 points (52-37). Coleman is just narrowly unpopular in retirement (38-41). The most disastrous pick for Romney would be Michele Bachmann, who would give Obama a 21-point lead (56-35). She is disliked statewide by an almost 2:1 margin (33-60).
PPP surveyed 973 Minnesota voters from May 31st to June 3rd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 52%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Norm Coleman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q7 If the Democratic ticket for President was
Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the
Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Tim
Pawlenty, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 52%
Romney-Pawlenty……………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q8 If the Democratic ticket for President was
Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the
Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and
Michele Bachmann, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 56%
Romney-Bachmann …………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 If the Democratic ticket for President was
Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the
Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Norm
Coleman, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 52%
Romney-Coleman……………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 41%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 20%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 34%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
