Raleigh, N.C. – In PPP’s first look at next year’s presidential contest in Rhode Island, Mike Huckabee and neighboring Massachusetts’ Mitt Romney come closer than John McCain did to defeating Barack Obama. But “closer” is a relative term. McCain lost by 28 points, so that still puts the eternally blue state unsurprisingly far out of reach.
At 53-39, Rhode Island gives the president his fifth highest approval rating of the 43 states in which PPP has measured him in the last 13 months. But though they are the strongest of the four against the president in every state, Romney and Huckabee are still weak enough candidates that a sizeable chunk of those who disapprove of Obama’s job performance still plan to vote for him. As in most states, all of the candidates are personally disliked, and lag by more than Obama’s approval-disapproval margin.
Romney almost halves McCain’s deficit, lagging 54-37. He is the only of the four Republicans tested to come close to breaking even on the favorability front in Rhode Island. 41% see him favorably and 42% unfavorably. That compares to Huckabee’s 32-44, Newt Gingrich’s 20-59, and Sarah Palin’s 24-69. Romney is the best liked across the board—the only one about whom the plurality independents have positive feelings, and the only one better liked in his own party than disliked by Democrats.
Doing just slightly better than McCain, Huckabee is behind, 56-31. But, as usual, Gingrich and Palin both do worse than the 2008 nominee, with the former at a 60-27 deficit, and the latter at 65-24. Despite only a 48-43 approval margin with independents, Obama wins their support in every matchup, by one point over Romney, 12 over Huckabee, 25 over Gingrich, and 32 over Palin. And despite more Democrats disapproving of his job performance than Republicans approving, the president attracts more GOP support than all the Republicans but Romney and Huckabee do from the Democratic base. Palin also drives Democrats toward the president in droves—only 3% are undecided when he is matched against her, versus 8-10% against the others. She also has an inordinate 28% of the GOP on the fence, versus 8-13% in the other horseraces.
“Even though a Mitt Romney nomination might cut into the Democrats’ usual lofty leads in Northeastern states, he’d have to hope for some sort of cosmic shift in public sentiment in order to win Rhode Island,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The last two times it went red were in the Nixon 1972 and Reagan 1984 landslides, when the Democratic candidates each carried one state and the District of Columbia.”
PPP surveyed 544 Rhode Island voters from February 16th to 22nd. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 53%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 69%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 60%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 27%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 56%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 65%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 24%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 31%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 58%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 12%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 14%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 45%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 86%
Other……………………………………………………… 14%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 18%
