Raleigh, N.C. – After George W. Bush very narrowly won the state in 2004, Barack Obama took New Mexico back for the Democrats in 2008, beating John McCain by 15 points. In PPP’s first look at next year’s race for the White House, he is set to at least match his performance there against any of five candidates tested against him.
New Mexicans approve of the president’s job performance by a 55-40 margin, tying with deep-blue Massachusetts for this third-best showing of any of the 40 states PPP has polled in the last year, after Maryland and his native Hawaii. More Republicans are unhappy with him than Democrats are happy, but Republicans are only 29% of voters, and independents lean strongly Democratic here, giving him almost a 2:1 boost, 60-32.
With the majority Democratic turnout and such huge favor with unaffiliated voters, it is no surprise the president easily beats any opponent thrown at him. He tops the least likely of the five prospective nominees, former governor Gary Johnson, by the same margin by which he trounced McCain, 51-36. Doing almost as well, Mitt Romney trails by 16 points, 53-37. The president’s lead grows to 19 versus Mike Huckabee, 55-36; 21 against Newt Gingrich, 56-35; and an enormous 29 over Sarah Palin, 62-33.
Most of the difference in the matchups can be explained by independents, even though they make up only 16% of the electorate. President Obama posts large-enough leads of 25 (against Johnson) to 34 points (versus Huckabee) with independents, but against Palin, he takes them by an astounding 51. Except Palin, all the Republicans steal more Democratic votes than the president does self-identified Republicans.
At 39%, Hispanics make up a larger share of the electorate than in any other state PPP has polled. Romney wins white voters by four points, and Johnson by three. The president ties Huckabee with them, beats Gingrich by one, and Palin by ten. But Hispanics give Obama margins of 35 (against Johnson) to 52 points (versus Palin).
“At this rate, New Mexico may not even be considered a swing state,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Despite Democrats’ difficulties last year, the West—including Colorado and Nevada—is turning more and more solid blue.”
PPP surveyed 545 New Mexico voters from February 4th to 6th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 55%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 64%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 56%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 62%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Gary
Johnson, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 39%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 6%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 46%
Conservative…………………………………………… 32%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 55%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%
Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 39%
White …………………………………………………….. 53%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
