Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama’s approval rating in Pennsylvania has deteriorated to the point that there is no state he hopes to win next year which sees him worse. 42% approve and 53% disapprove of his job performance in the Keystone State, a nine-point decline from the 46-48 PPP measured less than five months ago. That puts the state and its views on the president in league with tough-to-win states like Missouri and Montana, both of which Obama’s campaign played in in 2008, but neither of which he won, and neither of which he will likely win next year.
Luckily for the president, he has not yet fallen behind the Republicans hoping to depose him next fall. But he is still in trouble of losing Pennsylvania’s crucial electoral votes; he won them by ten points over John McCain. Obama ties Mitt Romney at 45%; the two were knotted at 44% in June. He leads Ron Paul by four, 46-42; the state’s former Sen. Rick Santorum by five, 47-42; Newt Gingrich by six, 49-43; Rick Perry by 13, 51-38; and Herman Cain by 18, 53-35. The president is ceding 11-16% of his own party’s vote, more than the 10% reported by exit polls in 2008. He is losing independents by up to three points and winning them by no more than seven, when he beat McCain by 19. He is cushioned by still taking 8-15% of the GOP (versus 13% in 2008).
For Cain, the only one tested in both polls other than Romney, this is an extraordinary slippage from an already bad 12-point deficit when only 55% of voters could express an opinion on him. But now that 83% are familiar with him after the sexual harassment allegations, his numbers are rapidly eroding. Only 22% have a favorable opinion of him, to 61% with an unfavorable one. In June, that same 22% saw him positively, but only a third negatively. Perry is the only one worse off on a personal level (17-66).
“Pennsylvania is Barack Obama’s most worrisome state for 2012,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s slipped there more than in any other large state and the electoral college picture changes fundamentally if it goes into the GOP column.”
PPP surveyed 500 Pennsylvania voters from November 17th to 20th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 66%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q14 Which system would you prefer for dispensing
Pennsylvania’s electoral votes: giving all of
them to the statewide winner or giving one to
the winner of each individual Congressional
District?
The electoral votes should all go to the
statewide winner ………………………………………38%
One should be given to the winner of each
individual Congressional District …………………43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 28%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 49%
Republican……………………………………………… 41%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 9%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
