Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama has declined in head-to-head matchups with leading Republican contenders Mitt Romney and Herman Cain since PPP last polled Ohio in August, yet they are the only two candidates who improve on John McCain’s five-point loss in this crucial battleground. After leading 45-43 previously, Obama has fallen into a tie with Romney at 46%, and he leads Cain 48-45, down five points from 47-39. The president tops Ron Paul by eight points, 48-40, and he leads Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann each by nine points (50-41 and 49-40, respectively), an improvement of five points against Perry and two versus Bachmann. Newt Gingrich trails by 11, 51-40.
Despite conservatives’ concerns about his views, Romney does the best job of uniting Republican voters, the chief reason he polls the best against the president. He is also one of three candidates to have double-digit leads among independents, but they are only 16% of the electorate, less than half Republicans’ share. Another key factor is that Romney is one of four Republicans to pull double-digit percentages of the plurality Democrats (along with Cain, Paul, and Bachmann), while Obama earns only 4% (against Romney) to 10% (versus Paul, Gingrich, and Bachmann) of the GOP.
43% approve and 52% disapprove of Obama’s job performance, essentially the same as the 44-52 found two months ago. His standing here is tied with Iowa and North Carolina for 24th out of the 37 states in which he has been measured this year; no state he wants to win next year sees him worse. But Cain is the only GOP candidate who is more popular than the president, and in fact, the only one whose favorability rating is even a net positive. His 41-37 favorability spread is up 17 points from 22-35, and Romney’s 36-48 is up seven from 30-49.
“If the election was today Barack Obama would lose to Mitt Romney in Ohio,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The undecideds are pretty much all unhappy with the President’s performance.”
PPP surveyed 581 Ohio voters from October 13th to 16th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………… 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………….. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………… 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable…………………………………………………. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………… 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable…………………………………………………. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………… 22%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable…………………………………………………. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………… 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………… 13%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable…………………………………………………. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………… 23%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable…………………………………………………. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………… 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………… 18%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable…………………………………………………. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………… 17%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………….. 49%
Michele Bachmann ……………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………… 11%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………….. 48%
Herman Cain…………………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………… 7%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Newt
Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………….. 51%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………… 9%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………….. 48%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………… 12%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………….. 50%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………… 41%
Undecided………………………………………………… 10%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………….. 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………… 46%
Undecided………………………………………………… 9%
Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………….. 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………….. 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………… 8%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………….. 10%
Somewhat liberal ………………………………………. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………….. 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………… 19%
Very conservative ……………………………………… 19%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ……………………………………………………. 51%
Man…………………………………………………………. 49%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat …………………………………………………. 47%
Republican……………………………………………….. 37%
Independent/Other …………………………………….. 16%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White……………………………………………………….. 83%
African-American ………………………………………. 13%
Other……………………………………………………….. 4%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older
than 65, press 4.
18 to 29……………………………………………………. 14%
30 to 45……………………………………………………. 26%
46 to 65……………………………………………………. 40%
Older than 65 ……………………………………………. 20%
