Raleigh, N.C. – As when PPP last polled the state in July, President Obama and his toughest potential challenger, Mitt Romney, are neck and neck in Nevada. But this time, unlike then and in other swing states, Romney is not the only Republican breathing down Obama’s neck. All of them improve on John McCain’s almost 13-point loss in 2008.
Obama and Romney each pull 46% of the vote, not much different than Obama’s 47-46 lead three months ago. Back then, however, the other four GOP contenders trailed by nine to 12 points. Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry still lag by similar amounts—but Perry is the only one down by double digits now, and three non-Romney candidates all come within four points of the president. New GOP frontrunner Herman Cain and surprisingly rising Newt Gingrich each trail by three, 49-46, while Ron Paul lags by four, 47-43. Bachmann is down by eight, 49-41, a slight improvement from 50-40 in the previous poll, while Perry is down 10, 51-41, a slight dip from 49-40.
The president’s net approval rating has slid six points on the margin in the last three months, from a decent 47-50 to 44-53. Independents have more than flipped from 52-45 to 42-53—half the equation—along with the twice-as-numerous Republicans siding even more against him. The president’s problem on this front remains his own party. They have not moved since July, but still only 78% of them approve, and 17% disapprove.
The president’s issues with independents and his own party lessen when he is pitted against his prospective 2012 foes, however. He earns 79-87% of Democrats and sees only 8-13% of them go the other way. And only one candidate, Paul, tops him with independents, and only by two points; Obama leads the others by three to 17.
“There aren’t many states Barack Obama won in 2008 where he has fallen as far as Nevada,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “What was an easy win last time looks like it will be a very tough hold in 2012.”
PPP surveyed 500 Nevada voters from October 20th to 23rd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 67%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q17 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 11%
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 7%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 23%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
