Raleigh, N.C. – Four years ago, Missouri lost its bellwether status in the presidential election, but it was still the closest contest in the country. John McCain prevailed over now President Obama by a tenth of a point. If Mitt Romney is the Republican standard-bearer this year, it looks like it will be just as close. He ties the president at 45%, but Obama leads the other contenders, two by close margins.
As in Ohio, Rick Santorum is by a significant margin the best-liked of the Republicans personally, with a 35-47 favorability spread to Romney’s 30-54, Ron Paul’s 26-55, and Newt Gingrich’s 29-59. But unlike in Ohio, where he performed the best against the president, Santorum here is only third best, trailing by three points (47-44). Paul lags by two points (45-43), and Gingrich shouts from a distant seven-point deficit (49-42)—yet another in a long line of recent state polls which suggest Gingrich would be the GOP’s most embarrassing nominee.
This is an improvement of four or five points for Obama over both Romney and Gingrich since PPP last polled the state last September. Then the president trailed Romney by four, while Gingrich lagged behind Obama by two points. The president was also behind Romney by one to six points in three polls from November 2010 to May 2011.
Four months ago, Romney and Gingrich were roughly as well-liked (or disliked) as they are now. The surge for the president in his standings against them is of his own doing. His net disapproval margin has been halved from ten to five points, with 45% now approving and 50% still disapproving, versus 43-53.
“It’s been a good week for Barack Obama in our polling,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s leading Mitt Romney nationally and in Ohio, and now tied with him in Missouri. The big question is whether this is just a State of the Union bounce or something that might prove to be more long lasting.”
PPP surveyed 582 Missouri voters from January 27th to 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q8 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 18%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
