Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama’s positioning in Pennsylvania has improved since PPP last surveyed the state three months ago, now with a 46% approval rating and 48% disapproval, versus a 42-52 spread then. But the president remains tied at 44% with Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney in this blue-leaning swing state he won by ten points over John McCain. In April, Romney led the president, 43-42.
Despite a draw with his closest challenger nationally, President Obama has significantly upped his job performance numbers by improving mainly with members of his own party and independents, and boosted his standing against Sarah Palin and the Keystone State’s former Senator Rick Santorum. Against everyone but Romney, the president leads by almost as much as if not more than his margin over McCain, topping Michele Bachmann, 50-43; Tim Pawlenty, 47-39; Santorum, 50-40 (up from 45-43); Herman Cain, 49-37; and Palin, 53-39 (50-39). Bachmann, Pawlenty, and Cain were not tested last time.
The reason for Romney’s success is that he pulls 18% of Democrats’ votes, while the others can muster only 12-15%. He also trails Obama by only a point with independents. Other than Pawlenty’s tie, Romney’s rivals lag by eight (Bachmann) to 21 points (Palin) with independents. At the same time, they almost all do better than the president in crossover support; he pulls only 7% (Romney) to 14% (Palin) of Republicans.
For all the overlap there is between Bachmann and Palin supporters among the GOP primary electorate, the general public’s views of Bachmann in the week after her official campaign launch are far better than those of Palin. In fact, Bachmann’s 34-41 favorability rating is the best of all the candidates. At 31-54, those who know Santorum best see him the worst.
“Right now, it looks like the only candidate who’ll give Obama trouble winning Pennsylvania again is Romney,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 545 Pennsylvania voters from June 30th to July 5th. No interviews were conducted July 3rd or 4th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 41%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 50%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 11%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 86%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
