Raleigh, N.C. – North Carolina remains as dead-even as ever. President Obama and his potentially toughest foe, Mitt Romney, are tied at 46% apiece. In four straight polls, the two have been even, give or take a point, and in every monthly poll PPP has conducted in the Tar Heel State this year, Obama has led by no more than three and Romney by no more than one. A year ago, the two were tied at 44%.
New frontrunner Newt Gingrich has closed on the president since last month, as has Ron Paul, but neither can quite match Romney’s competitiveness. Gingrich trails by four points (49-45), and Paul is down by five (47-42). Both have closed by three points since late October, while Romney is down an insignificant point, having led 46-45 then. Rick Perry is at the same eight-point (50-42) deficit as in the previous survey.
As the GOP primary contest heads toward Iowa, North Carolina voters have soured a little on Romney and improved their views of Gingrich, Paul, and Obama. Romney’s favorability spread has declined eight points from 36-47 to 32-51, while Gingrich is up ten from 35-53 to 41-49, now the most popular of the Republicans. Paul is up four from 22-54 to 26-54. The president’s approval rating is now 47%, with 50% disapproving, versus 45-50 in the last poll.
The president has improved by ten points with independents both in the approval column and in the head-to-head against Romney, now trailing by only five points. Gingrich leads by four, and Paul by eight with unaffiliated voters. Gingrich’s problem is that he allows Obama to consolidate more of his base than Romney does, and a lot of Republicans are on the fence when faced with a choice of Obama and Paul.
“Our North Carolina polling has been amazingly consistent over the course of this year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It will be a hotly contested swing state in 2012.”
PPP surveyed 865 North Carolina voters from December 1st to 4th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 65%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 47%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q18
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 19%
704………………………………………………………… 24%
828………………………………………………………… 12%
910………………………………………………………… 16%
919………………………………………………………… 18%
