Polls

Obama returns to lead over Romney, others in NC

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
PresidentGraph Raleigh, N.C. –
North Carolinians fall about where the country as a whole does on President Obama, with 46% approving and 50% disapproving of his performance in office.  That is a marginal improvement on the 45-51 spread PPP found in July, one of his worst months in quite some time.  But while voters’ views of his handling of his duties have only inched up, their preferences for next fall’s election have rebounded significantly toward the president.

Last month, Romney and Obama were tied at 45% apiece, while Michele Bachmann lagged by only three points, 46-43; Herman Cain by four, 46-42; Tim Pawlenty by five, 46-41; and Sarah Palin by eight, 50-42.  Now, the president leads Romney by three points, 46-43; Rick Perry, tested for the first time, by eight, 48-40; Bachmann by ten, 50-40; and Cain and Palin each by 13, 50-37 and 52-39, respectively.

Obama’s standing against his prospective opponents last month was due to an unusual double-digit deficit with independents against every single Republican candidate.  Now, those fickle unaffiliated voters have flip-flopped by margins of 16 to 31 points.  Where Obama trailed Romney by 17, he now lags by only a single point, for example.  He leads Bachmann by five, Cain by nine, and Palin by 13, and also trails Perry by one.

The more exposure she gets, the more voters have soured on Bachmann.  34% saw her favorably and 42% unfavorably last month, similar to the president’s net approval, but that has slipped to 29-48, making her the second least popular after Palin, who has also declined from 35-57 to 31-60.  The others are all still less liked than the president here, with Romney at 32-46, Perry debuting at 22-36, and Cain at 19-34.

“North Carolina’s never going to be an easy state for Barack Obama,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But our polls consistently show that he should be very competitive there next year.”

PPP surveyed 780 North Carolina voters from August 4th to 7th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 30%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%

Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%

Q15 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 22%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

Q17
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 17%
704………………………………………………………… 21%
828………………………………………………………… 14%
910………………………………………………………… 13%
919………………………………………………………… 24%

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