Raleigh, N.C. – Three months ago, things were looking pretty grim for President Obama in Nevada. It was then one of the first swing states he won last time in which he trailed one of his potential Republican opponents, down 46-43 to Mitt Romney. In a state he won by 12 points in 2008, Obama has begun to turn things back around, now leading Romney by a point and four others tested against him by nine to 12.
The entire movement in Obama’s approval rating, from 45% approving and 52% disapproving to 47-50 now, has come with independents. Democrats remain at a weak 79-17 and Republicans at 7-89. The president’s standing here is in league with that in other swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Arizona, where Romney has been either slightly ahead or behind in recent months.
Despite ceding a little ground to the president, Romney is still by far the GOP’s most electable candidate. His 47-46 defict is leagues better than Rick Perry’s 49-40, Herman Cain’s 48-39, Michele Bachmann’s 50-40, or Sarah Palin’s 51-39. Of these, only Romney and Palin were polled previously. Palin trailed by a similar 50-39 margin then.
Romney is the only Republican to win the independent vote, 49-44. Obama leads with this group by 10 over Perry, 13 over Cain, and 20 against each Bachmann and Palin. Along with Cain, Romney is also one of only two who earns more Democratic votes than the president does Republicans. The silver lining for the Republicans is that more of the GOP is undecided than are Democrats, meaning things will likely get closer once the party settles on a nominee.
“What our polling shows in Nevada is what we’re starting to see in most swing states right now- if the GOP nominates Mitt Romney it has a very good chance and if it nominations anyone else Obama probably gets reelected,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 601 Nevada voters from July 28th to 31st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 16%
White …………………………………………………….. 71%
African American……………………………………… 8%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q18 Are you a Mormon or another religion?
Mormon………………………………………………….. 9%
Another religion……………………………………….. 91%
